Modelling Biological Populations In Space And Time

This volume develops a unifying approach to population studies, emphasising the interplay between modelling and experimentation. Throughout, mathematicians and biologists are provided with a framework within which population dynamics can be fully explored and understood. Aspects of population dynamics covered include birth-death and logistic processes, competition and predator-prey relationships, chaos, reaction time-delays, fluctuating environments, spatial systems, velocities of spread, epidemics, and spatial branching structures. Both deterministic and stochastic models are considered. Whilst the more theoretically orientated sections will appeal to mathematical biologists, the material is presented so that readers with little mathematical expertise can bypass these without losing the main flow of the text.

This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations. The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity, population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models. The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.

The text of this monograph represents the author's lecture notes from a course taught in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook in the Spring of 1977. On account of its origin as lecture notes, some sections of the text are telegraphic in style while other portions are overly detailed. This stylistic foible has not been modified as it does not appear to detract seriously from the readability and it does help to indicate which topics were stressed. The audience for the course at Stony Brook was composed almost entirely of fourth year undergraduates majoring in the mathematical sciences. All of these students had studied at least four semesters of calculus and one of probability; few had any prior experience with either differential equations or ecology. It seems prudent to point out that the author's background is in engineering and applied mathematics and not in the biological sciences. It is hoped that this is not painfully obvious. -vii- The focus of the monograph is on the formulation and solution of mathematical models; it makes no pretense of being a text in ecology. The idea of a population is employed mainly as a pedagogic tool, providing unity and intuitive appeal to the varied mathematical ideas introduced. If the biological setting is stripped away, what remains can be interpreted as topics on the qualitative behavior of differential and difference equations.

The book provides an introduction to deterministic (and some stochastic) modeling of spatiotemporal phenomena in ecology, epidemiology, and neural systems. A survey of the classical models in the fields with up to date applications is given. The book begins with detailed description of how spatial dynamics/diffusive processes influence the dynamics of biological populations. These processes play a key role in understanding the outbreak and spread of pandemics which help us in designing the control strategies from the public health perspective. A brief discussion on the functional mechanism of the brain (single neuron models and network level) with classical models of neuronal dynamics in space and time is given. Relevant phenomena and existing modeling approaches in ecology, epidemiology and neuroscience are introduced, which provide examples of pattern formation in these models. The analysis of patterns enables us to study the dynamics of macroscopic and microscopic behaviour of underlying systems and travelling wave type patterns observed in dispersive systems. Moving on to virus dynamics, authors present a detailed analysis of different types models of infectious diseases including two models for influenza, five models for Ebola virus and seven models for Zika virus with diffusion and time delay. A Chapter is devoted for the study of Brain Dynamics (Neural systems in space and time). Significant advances made in modeling the reaction-diffusion systems are presented and spatiotemporal patterning in the systems is reviewed. Development of appropriate mathematical models and detailed analysis (such as linear stability, weakly nonlinear analysis, bifurcation analysis, control theory, numerical simulation) are presented. Key Features Covers the fundamental concepts and mathematical skills required to analyse reaction-diffusion models for biological populations. Concepts are introduced in such a way that readers with a basic knowledge of differential equations and numerical methods can understand the analysis. The results are also illustrated with figures. Focuses on mathematical modeling and numerical simulations using basic conceptual and classic models of population dynamics, Virus and Brain dynamics. Covers wide range of models using spatial and non-spatial approaches. Covers single, two and multispecies reaction-diffusion models from ecology and models from bio-chemistry. Models are analysed for stability of equilibrium points, Turing instability, Hopf bifurcation and pattern formations. Uses Mathematica for problem solving and MATLAB for pattern formations. Contains solved Examples and Problems in Exercises. The Book is suitable for advanced undergraduate, graduate and research students. For those who are working in the above areas, it provides information from most of the recent works. The text presents all the fundamental concepts and mathematical skills needed to build models and perform analyses.

This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations. The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity, population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models. The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.

Throughout the twentieth century, biologists investigated the mechanisms that stabilize biological populations, populations which--if unchecked by such agencies as competition and predation--should grow geometrically. How is order in nature maintained in the face of the seemingly disorderly struggle for existence? In this book, Laurence Mueller and Amitabh Joshi examine current theories of population stability and show how recent laboratory research on model populations--particularly blowflies, Tribolium, and Drosophila--contributes to our understanding of population dynamics and the evolution of stability. The authors review the general theory of population stability and critically analyze techniques for inferring whether a given population is in balance or not. They then show how rigorous empirical research can reveal both the proximal causes of stability (how populations are regulated and maintained at an equilibrium, including the relative roles of biotic and abiotic factors) and its ultimate, mostly evolutionary causes. In the process, they describe experimental studies on model systems that address the effects of age-structure, inbreeding, resource levels, and population structure on the stability and persistence of populations. The discussion incorporates the authors' own findings on the evolution of population stability in Drosophila. They go on to relate laboratory work to studies of animals in the wild and to develop a general framework for relating the life history and ecology of a species to its population dynamics. This accessible, finely written illustration of how carefully designed experiments can improve theory will have tremendous value for all ecologists and evolutionary biologists.

In this contribution, several probabilistic tools to study population dynamics are developed. The focus is on scaling limits of qualitatively different stochastic individual based models and the long time behavior of some classes of limiting processes. Structured population dynamics are modeled by measure-valued processes describing the individual behaviors and taking into account the demographic and mutational parameters, and possible interactions between individuals. Many quantitative parameters appear in these models and several relevant normalizations are considered, leading to infinite-dimensional deterministic or stochastic large-population approximations. Biologically relevant questions are considered, such as extinction criteria, the effect of large birth events, the impact of environmental catastrophes, the mutation-selection trade-off, recovery criteria in parasite infections, genealogical properties of a sample of individuals. These notes originated from a lecture series on Structured Population Dynamics at Ecole polytechnique (France). Vincent Bansaye and Sylvie Méléard are Professors at Ecole Polytechnique (France). They are a specialists of branching processes and random particle systems in biology. Most of their research concerns the applications of probability to biodiversity, ecology and evolution.

The vast majority of random processes in the real world have no memory - the next step in their development depends purely on their current state. Stochastic realizations are therefore defined purely in terms of successive event-time pairs, and such systems are easy to simulate irrespective of their degree of complexity. However, whilst the associated probability equations are straightforward to write down, their solution usually requires the use of approximation and perturbation