Modelling Our Changing World

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http: //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.

This book offers a comprehensive overview of the challenges in hydrological modeling. Hydrology, on both a local and global scale, has undergone dramatic changes, largely due to variations in climate, population growth and the associated land-use and land-cover changes. Written by experts in the field, the book provides decision-makers with a better understanding of the science, impacts, and consequences of these climate and land-use changes on hydrology. Further, offering insights into how the changing behavior of hydrological processes, related uncertainties and their evolution affect the modeling process, it is of interest for all researchers and practitioners using hydrological modeling.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * MORE THAN ONE MILLION COPIES SOLD “A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well. A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years. In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.

Modern landscape research uses a panoply of techniques to further our understanding of our changing world, including mathematics, statistics and advanced simulation techniques to combine empirical observations with known theories. This book identifies emerging fields and new challenges that are discussed within the framework of the ‘driving forces’ of Landscape Development. the book addresses all of the ‘hot topics’ in this important area of study and emphasizes major contemporary trends in these fields.

In this original text/reference, Bela H. Banathy discusses a broad range of design approaches, models, methods, and tools, together with the theoretical and philosophical bases of social systems design. he explores the existing knowledge bases of systems design; introduces and integrates concepts from other fields that contribute to design thinking and practice; and thoroughly explains how competence in social systems design empowers people to direct their progress and create a truly participative democracy. Based on advanced learning theory and practice, the text's material is enhanced by helpful diagrams that illustrate novel concepts and problem sets that allow readers to apply these concepts.

This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations of applicability. This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that good econometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure full understanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.

This book shows how companies like Google have reinvented the common practice in management in order to continuously innovate in fast changing industries. With the ever-increasing pace of change, reinventing existing management principles could become a necessity and prove crucial in the long-term competitiveness of many companies. The book presents a unique synthesis of findings from leading research on long-term competitiveness in fast changing industries. The core of the study comprises an exclusive 1-year in-depth research study on the drivers of innovation at Google and includes examples on how Google has translated the reinvented management principles into practice. The book also offers key action-points to help practitioners in reinventing their own management models for continuous innovation.