Modernizing China S Military

Annotation The most thorough overview of the Chinese defense programs and Sino-American military relations by a leading authority.

Examining Chinese intentions and the means they have to achieve those intentions, this volume begins with Roger Ames's essay analyzing the Chinese military through from the earliest times

David Shambaugh, a leading international authority on Chinese strategic and military affairs, offers the most comprehensive and insightful assessment to date of the Chinese military. The result of a decade's research, Modernizing China's Military comes at a crucial moment in history, one when international attention is increasingly focused on the rise of Chinese military power. Basing his analysis on an unprecedented use of Chinese military publications and interviews with People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, Shambaugh addresses important questions about Chinese strategic intentions and military capabilities--questions that are of key concern for government policymakers as well as strategic analysts and a concerned public.

"China's process of modernizing its armed forces has involved the development of indigenously designed weapons systems, some of which appeared to undergo a process of development, procurement, and/or deployment that outpaced the estimates of U.S. and other foreign observers. This paper specifically focuses on four key weapons platforms that have been discussed as 'surprise' developments to U.S. analysts. ... Based on the four case studies covered in this report, there are no universal trends in publicly reported U.S. government analysis on the development of indigenous Chinese weapon systems. ... The trends of past decades are no longer a reliable guide to the performance of China's defense industries. Furthermore, U.S. observers should not take at face value statements from the Chinese government on military policy, as they could either be deceptive, or simply issued by agencies (e.g., the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs) that have no real say over military matters. Based on the trends identified in this paper, U.S. analysts and policymakers should expect to see continued advancements in the ability of the PRC to produce modern weapons platforms, and an attendant increase in the operational capabilities of the People's Liberation Army."--Exec. sum.

China’s military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations.

To help the U.S. Air Force assess the resources the government of the People's Republic of China is likely to spend on its military over the next two decades, this study projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and the military in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future Chinese expenditures on defense with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Although economic growth in China is destined to slow, output will still triple by 2025. In addition, government reforms hold the promise of improving the weak performance of China's defense industries. Although the researchers' high-end forecast of military expenditures is based on the assumption that the Chinese government would be able to spend 5.0 percent of GDP on defense, they believe that pressures within China to increase social spending on health care, pensions, education, and the environment, coupled with the costs of paying the Chinese government's liabilities, make it more likely that military spending will not rise above 2.3 percent of GDP. Using a combination of projected market and purchasing power parity exchange rates, the authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003.

The purpose of this study is to assess future resource constraints on, and potential domestic economic and industrial contributions to, the ability of the Chinese military to become a significant threat to U.S. forces by 2025. The authors conducted this assessment by answering the following questions: (1) What will be the likely shape and size of the Chinese economy over the next two decades?; (2) What types of constraints will the Chinese government face in terms of drawing on increased economic output for spending on the military?; (3) What problems will the military face and what possibilities will it have in terms of purchasing the goods and services it desires from the Chinese defense industry?; and (4) How will these constraints and opportunities shape the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces over the next two decades? The authors developed answers to these questions using a variety of information sources and analytical techniques. Chinese statistical data, analyses of the Chinese economy, and a model of the Chinese economy were used to address the question of economic growth and size. The rich literature discussing tax, social, and fiscal policies in China was married with a statistical analysis of Chinese spending and the economic analysis to address the questions of budgetary constraints. To evaluate the health of China's defense industries, they engaged in an extensive analysis of open-source Chinese and English-language information on these industries and interviews with knowledgeable industry specialists to determine institutional reforms in China's defense industries, including contracting procedures. Estimates of the current and future size of Chinese military expenditures drew on newly available Chinese-language primary sources on defense budgeting and local expenditures, Chinese statistical material, and a military forecasting model developed for this study.