Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

In the past few years, a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. The author provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues, and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with, and reasonably well-functioning financial markets). After presenting a formal analytical framework, the author discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting, and how such a regime differs from money, and exchange rate targeting regimes. After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries. His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion, without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design, and performance of monetary policy, compared with other policy approaches that central banks may follow. Not all countries may be able to satisfy the technical requirements (such as adequate price data, adequate understanding of the links between instruments, and targets of monetary policy, and adequate forecasting capabilities), but such requirements should not be overstated. Forecasting capability can never be perfect, and sensible projections always involve qualitative judgment. More important, and often more difficult, is the task of designing, or improving an institutional framework that would allow the central bank to pursue the goal of low, stable inflation, while maintaining the ability to stabilize fluctuations in output.

This book contains the papers, comments, and the discussion at a conference on "Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy", held at Saltsjobaden, Stockholm, August 26–27, 1975. The papers integrate the flexible exchange rates theory with macro theory and stabilization policy analysis. .

A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.

Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices.In the past few years a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. Ageacute;nor provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with and reasonably well-functioning financial markets).After presenting a formal analytical framework, Ageacute;nor discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting and how such a regime differs from money and exchange rate targeting regimes.After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor, the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries.His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design and performance of monetary policy compared with other policy approaches that central banks may follow.Not all countries may be able to satisfy the technical requirements (such as adequate price data, adequate understanding of the links between instruments and targets of monetary policy, and adequate forecasting capabilities), but such requirements should not be overstated. Forecasting capability can never be perfect, and sensible projections always involve qualitative judgment.More important, and often more difficult, is the task of designing or improving an institutional framework that would allow the central bank to pursue the goal of low, stable inflation while maintaining the ability to stabilize fluctuations in output.This paper - a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the dynamics of monetary policy in developing countries. The author may be contacted at [email protected].

Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.

The choice of assigning monetary or fiscal policy to external balance is complicated when the authorities are concerned with both the current account balance and the exchange rate. A strategy of using monetary policy to control the current account via the exchange rate may fail, because the relative-price effect is likely to be offset by the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand. An alternative strategy, in which fiscal policy is assigned to limit shifts in the current account while the exchange rate is not directly targeted, may have a better chance of having favorable effects on both variables.