Monitoring The Agri Food System In Myanmar Agricultural Crop Traders August 2022 Survey

Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices. This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.

To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions. Key Findings • Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior. • In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022. • Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading. Looking Ahead • High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects. • For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency. • Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.

To understand how Myanmar’s crop marketing system has been affected by political instability, phone interviews were conducted in May with 78 agricultural commodity traders. Key Findings: Although there have been modest improvements since the previous survey in March 2021, disruptions to transportation, payments, credit, and telecommunications are still widespread, with 94 percent of interviewed traders in May experiencing at least one business disruption. Credit for trading operations is a much more frequently cited difficulty compared to a year ago. Forty percent of traders reported challenges obtaining new credit or loans in May 2021 and 37 percent reported difficulties repaying loans, compared to just 15 percent and 10 percent in May 2020, respectively. Although credit demand increased, there has been a decline in credit provision to farmers. The share of traders offering credit dropped by 18 percentage points in May 2021 compared to May 2020, and the average value of credit lent by traders still lending is 30 percent lower. Unwillingness to lend may be related to increased difficulties in loan recovery–48 percent of traders experienced difficulties collecting repayment on credit lent to farmers in May 2021 compared to 27 percent in May 2020. There has been a dramatic reduction in adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures compared to the same period a year ago, despite the third wave of the pandemic underway and the presence of new and more contagious variants. Cash payments have become increasingly dominant for purchases and sales as bank transfers and mobile payments are rarely being used. The use of the Hundi system has also decreased in recent months. Crop volumes traded are down 12 percent compared to a year ago and sesame prices have dropped by one-third their value.

In August 2022, we surveyed 467 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews. Key findings  Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the most significant disruption by 91 percent of millers in August 2022. Rising fuel prices and access issues afflicted smaller, local mills while larger mills were more affected by interruptions in electricity supplies.  Continuing a trend from March 2022, banking and credit disruptions were less prevalent in August. Lending and borrowing show only minor changes relative to 2021.  Average milling throughput declined by more than 20 percent compared to a year prior, and stored volumes of both paddy and rice showed similar declines.  Rice prices and milling margins increased sharply by about 40 percent compared to last year, driven by rising global prices, and, most importantly, by a rapid devaluation of Myanmar kyat. In USD terms, the price increases are more modest and closer to global changes. At the parallel (unofficial) exchange rate, prices have declined.  Prices of byproducts (in kyats) have also increased sharply from the last year, especially for rice bran which is important to the animal feed industry. Looking forward  Looking forward to the 2022 monsoon harvest and marketing season, over half of all millers expect a decline in paddy production of at least 10 percent in their townships and an additional 22 percent of millers expect a smaller decline. Just 3 percent expect their local paddy production to be higher in 2022 monsoon than in 2021.  Changes in input use (e.g., a decline in fertilizer application) are far and away the most cited reason for lower expected paddy production. Half of millers said that less favorable rainfall patterns compared to 2021 are also a factor in lower paddy production.  On top of lower reported throughput in August 2022 and lower storage volumes, a decline in monsoon paddy production would have large implications for both rural and urban households. Lower supply coupled with the continued and widespread disruptions to utilities and transport, could drive prices even higher. At the same time, unpredictable foreign exchange and export policies could make it difficult for value chain actors to anticipate supply and demand conditions, resulting in higher price volatility.

To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023. Key Findings • Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022. • Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022. • The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs. • Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs. • More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high. • The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels. Looking Forward • Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production. • However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons. • More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.

To understand the effects of political instability, COVID-19, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 252 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in July 2022.