Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Monsoon 2023 Farming Environment And Farm Commercialization

We have analyzed the farming environment and farm commercialization situation for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed almost 4,400 crop producers in the monsoon, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: The security situation in Myanmar continues to pose concerns for farmers, impacting their commercialization practices. During the interview period (January – March 2024): 1.1) 31 percent of farmers reported feeling 'very insecure' or 'insecure'. 1.2) 22 percent expressed serious security concerns while moving around. 1.3) 8 percent stated that conflict in their area prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields. 1.4) 1.4 percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. 1.5) 11 percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction. Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area - the country's rice bowl - experiencing relatively better conditions. Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about a quarter of Burmese farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the monsoon and post/premonsoon periods. This situation is exacerbated in conflict-affected areas such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah, with Rakhine experiencing a dramatic worsening in recent months, with 81 percent of farmers reporting fuel scarcity in the post/pre-monsoon period. Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2023 monsoon season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 4 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers, while 6 percent faced difficulties in accessing mechanization and 18 percent in securing agricultural labor. Input prices increased during the 2023 monsoon compared to the same period in 2022, with mechanized plowing costs rising by 20 percent, and hired labor costs for men and women increasing by 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Conversely, urea prices decreased by 15 percent. In the post/pre-monsoon of 2024, wages saw substantial increases compared to the monsoon, especially for men, with a 15 percent rise, possibly linked to the new conscription law. Nearly all crop prices increased compared to the previous monsoon. Paddy prices surged by 64 percent. Conversely, maize prices experienced an 11 percent decrease, likely due to transportation issues via Myawaddy, the border town for trade with Thailand. Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to the previous one. However, 14 percent of farmers reported lower sales incomes. Farmers in remote and conflict-affected areas face significant disadvantages in farm commercialization. Insecurity and isolation are primarily linked to higher input costs, while output prices are similar or lower compared to secure and well-connected areas. Consequently, farming profitability in these regions is reduced, impacting farmers' income and welfare.

Key Findings This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2023, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,001 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period June – July 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. Almost a quarter of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2023 dry season period. However, it was difficult to access labor for 17 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the dry season of 2023 increased compared to the same period in 2022 by 14 percent for urea, 19 percent for mechanization, and 15 and 22 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 69 percent. Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. In the case of pulses, black gram increased by 21 percent and green gram by 19 percent. In the case of oilseeds, sesame increased by 38 percent and groundnut by 33 percent.  The high price increases in the case of paddy and oilseeds – higher than input costs – reflects increased profitability for these farmers. However, that is not the case of these other crops.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Farms affected by cyclone Mocha and farms in insecure areas however reported relatively more crop sales income decreases than other farmers. Recommended Actions  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  As cyclone Mocha has reduced, among others, incomes of a large number of farmers in Rakhine and the Dry Zone, assistance of these cyclone-affected farmers is needed.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2022, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 5,000 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period February – March 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).  Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases. Recommended Actions:  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.

This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the post-monsoon (dry season) 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 5001 crop farmers undertaken in June – July 2023. Most farmer input use decisions were taken prior to damage inflicted by Cyclone Mocha. Key findings • Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas. • In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality. • Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm. • Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas. • Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access. • The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled. Recommendations • Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff. • The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication. • As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2022. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,021 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country in Q3 of 2022. This note assesses the perceived security situation of crop farmers, agricultural input availability and prices, prices of major crops at the farm level, changes in income from crop sales, and overall crop marketing challenges.

We have analyzed oilseed production patterns, productivity, and profitability for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 802 oilseed producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: Overall, oilseed productivity increased by an average of 2 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year. Performance differed by crop with soybean and sesame experiencing moderate increases in yield, while groundnut and sunflower witnessed a decline in average yields of one percent. This mediocre performance stemmed from low input usage (particularly fertilizer), similar labor inputs, and a high occurrence of natural shocks, notably pests, diseases, and weeds, and heavy rain and storms. Despite decreasing fertilizer prices, chemical fertilizer use remained low in oilseed production, with 45 percent of farmers using chemical fertilizer in monsoon 2023. Further, chemical fertilizer use did not increase in oilseed production compared to the previous monsoon. Organic fertilizer use, on the other hand, is high in oilseed production, as 63 percent of farmers applied it in the 2023 monsoon season. During this time, organic fertilizer was used by 74 percent of groundnut farmers and 76 percent of oilseed farmers in the Dry Zone. This is due to the availability of organic manure in the Dry Zone where oilseed production is high. Groundnut, soybean, and sesame farmers relied on seeds saved from last year’s harvest, while 67 percent of sunflower farmers purchased seeds from ag-input retailers or the government. The percentage of oilseed farmers using self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market - increased by 9 percentage points compared to last monsoon. Draught animal ownership remains important for oilseed production, especially in the Dry Zone. Seventy-one percent of oilseed farmers used draught animals in production, with 50 percent using their owned draught animals. Thirty-nine percent of oilseed farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with pests, diseases, and weeds (reported by 36 percent of farmers who experienced shocks), heavy rain/ storms (reported by 34 percent), droughts (reported by 22 percent), and irregular rainfall (reported by 21 percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. Oilseed prices at the farm level increased by between 20 (soybean) and 45 (sunflower) percent, reflecting changes in international oilseed prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – gross margins from oilseed farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by between 2 (soybean and groundnut) and 12 (sesame) percent compared to the previous year. Real sunflower gross margins declined. At the same time, nominal profits increased by 33 percent since the previous monsoon. High price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. Twenty percent of oilseed farmers faced significant issues in terms of marketing, including low prices for crops, insecurity, and having trouble reaching traders. These issues likely decreased the profitability of oilseed farming for the affected farmers. Oilseed farmers reflecting on this monsoon compared to last, perceived higher profits, suggesting that the oilseed sector continues to be a lucrative choice for farmers. These findings have several policy implications: Ensure access to quality seeds: Reusing seeds from previous seasons reduces yields, especially when combined with climate shocks. The private sector should make quality seeds and seeds with high oil content available to boost oilseed crop yields. Promote organic fertilizer use: Organic fertilizer is predominantly used in the Dry Zone. Expand its use to other agro-ecological zones to improve long-term soil fertility and help farmers mitigate the impact of fluctuating chemical fertilizer prices. The private sector and NGOs through in-person and online platforms can provide training on making compost from farm residues for farmers without access to animal manures. Enhance pest and disease management: The private sector should provide farmers with access to better pest and disease management resources, including training and access to effective, environmentally friendly pesticides and herbicides. Strengthen climate resilience: The private sector can strengthen climate resilience by developing and disseminating climate-resilient agricultural practices, providing training on drought-tolerant and flood-resistant crop varieties through in-person and online platforms, and offering financial incentives and technological support to farmers. Create secure marketing channels: Farmers face low crop prices and safety issues during trade, along with difficulties in reaching traders due to security concerns. Develop secure and stable marketing channels to address these challenges. Increase loans for oilseed crops: Given the higher production costs of groundnut, sesame, and soybean compared to sunflower, MADB should increase their loan amounts for these crops to enhance their productivity. The private sector could also lend money to oilseed farmers, given the increase in oilseed production stemming from their perceived profitability and importance to the government.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of output markets and crop prices in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2021. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 4,000 crop farmers in 281 townships in all states/regions of the country, over the period February 2022 – March 2022. We found that: Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before. Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent. There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent. Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.

Over the last decade, farms in Myanmar have gone through important market transitions. On the input side, imports of chemical fertilizer increased four-fold and agro-chemicals eight-fold while 55 percent more farmers were using mechanization rental services between 2011 and 2020. On the output side, three-quarters of Myanmar’s crop production is sold, indicating high market orientation, especially so for non-paddy crops. However, farm commercialization in Myanmar started from a low base and is still lagging peer countries in the region. The twin crises in 2020 and 2021 (the covid-19 and the political crisis) and international market developments have further led to increasing worries for an agricultural market transformation on hold or in reverse, as seen by a decline in imports of modern inputs, driven by price increases of inputs, currency policy changes, insecurity, and reduced profitability for most crop farmers. To improve farm commercialization and to catch up with peers, a better and secure business environment, openness to trade, further diversification, and improved infrastructure is called for.