Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Q1 2022 Farmgate Prices And Marketing By Crop Farmers

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of output markets and crop prices in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2021. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 4,000 crop farmers in 281 townships in all states/regions of the country, over the period February 2022 – March 2022. We found that: Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before. Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent. There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent. Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2022. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,021 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country in Q3 of 2022. This note assesses the perceived security situation of crop farmers, agricultural input availability and prices, prices of major crops at the farm level, changes in income from crop sales, and overall crop marketing challenges.

Key Findings This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2023, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,001 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period June – July 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. Almost a quarter of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2023 dry season period. However, it was difficult to access labor for 17 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the dry season of 2023 increased compared to the same period in 2022 by 14 percent for urea, 19 percent for mechanization, and 15 and 22 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 69 percent. Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. In the case of pulses, black gram increased by 21 percent and green gram by 19 percent. In the case of oilseeds, sesame increased by 38 percent and groundnut by 33 percent.  The high price increases in the case of paddy and oilseeds – higher than input costs – reflects increased profitability for these farmers. However, that is not the case of these other crops.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Farms affected by cyclone Mocha and farms in insecure areas however reported relatively more crop sales income decreases than other farmers. Recommended Actions  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  As cyclone Mocha has reduced, among others, incomes of a large number of farmers in Rakhine and the Dry Zone, assistance of these cyclone-affected farmers is needed.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2022, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 5,000 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period February – March 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).  Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases. Recommended Actions:  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.

We have analyzed the farming environment and farm commercialization situation for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed almost 4,400 crop producers in the monsoon, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: The security situation in Myanmar continues to pose concerns for farmers, impacting their commercialization practices. During the interview period (January – March 2024): 1.1) 31 percent of farmers reported feeling 'very insecure' or 'insecure'. 1.2) 22 percent expressed serious security concerns while moving around. 1.3) 8 percent stated that conflict in their area prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields. 1.4) 1.4 percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. 1.5) 11 percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction. Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area - the country's rice bowl - experiencing relatively better conditions. Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about a quarter of Burmese farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the monsoon and post/premonsoon periods. This situation is exacerbated in conflict-affected areas such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah, with Rakhine experiencing a dramatic worsening in recent months, with 81 percent of farmers reporting fuel scarcity in the post/pre-monsoon period. Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2023 monsoon season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 4 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers, while 6 percent faced difficulties in accessing mechanization and 18 percent in securing agricultural labor. Input prices increased during the 2023 monsoon compared to the same period in 2022, with mechanized plowing costs rising by 20 percent, and hired labor costs for men and women increasing by 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Conversely, urea prices decreased by 15 percent. In the post/pre-monsoon of 2024, wages saw substantial increases compared to the monsoon, especially for men, with a 15 percent rise, possibly linked to the new conscription law. Nearly all crop prices increased compared to the previous monsoon. Paddy prices surged by 64 percent. Conversely, maize prices experienced an 11 percent decrease, likely due to transportation issues via Myawaddy, the border town for trade with Thailand. Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to the previous one. However, 14 percent of farmers reported lower sales incomes. Farmers in remote and conflict-affected areas face significant disadvantages in farm commercialization. Insecurity and isolation are primarily linked to higher input costs, while output prices are similar or lower compared to secure and well-connected areas. Consequently, farming profitability in these regions is reduced, impacting farmers' income and welfare.

Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

This note provides an overview of agricultural input access and utilization for the post-monsoon (dry season) 2023 based on a nationally and regionally representative sample of 5001 crop farmers undertaken in June – July 2023. Most farmer input use decisions were taken prior to damage inflicted by Cyclone Mocha. Key findings • Access to mechanization services, tractors and combine harvesters (or threshers for pulses) was similar to the previous post-monsoon season and even showed recovery in most conflict areas. • In contrast to mechanization, access to seed was reduced in conflict areas. Almost half of all seed purchases nationally are made from neighboring farmers, indicating an opportunity to target extension to local informal seed producers to ensure quality. • Fertilizer application rates increased by 33 percent, driven especially by higher rates of urea application in response to higher paddy prices. The benefit-cost ratio of urea application to paddy crops averaged 2.09 at the urea sales price reported by agri-input dealers and 1.76 at farmer reported prices. The difference in reported prices likely reflects interest charges and local transport costs from the dealer to the farm. • Labor hiring by farmers increased in a tight rural labor market, resulting in wage increases averaging 1,000 MMK per day. The gap between male and female wages narrowed, especially in conflict areas. • Extension access deteriorated noticeably from a year ago. In-person extension services from public, private and NGO sources declined for cereals, oilseeds, and pulses, with the exception of private extension for groundnut. NGO extension services were sharply reduced and almost non-existent for some crops. Spatial analysis of extension access indicates that conflict is an important factor in extension access, pointing to an important role for improvements in mobile extension services. Yet increases in mobile extension access were modest and are unlikely to have compensated for the reduction in field extension agent access. • The share of farmers using credit changed little compared to the year before, but sources of credit did change. The share of farmers taking credit from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), microfinance institutions, private banks and money lenders all fell, while the share receiving credit form agricultural input retailers more than doubled. Recommendations • Improvements in the geographical coverage and content of mobile extension services could play an important role in offsetting reductions in in-person extension access. This is an opportunity for development partners to have a positive impact without increasing risk to beneficiaries or implementing partner staff. • The prevalence of local farmers as a seed source indicates that mobile extension services targeting informal seed producers could be important, along with facilitating access to certified seed for multiplication. • As nearly all chemical input distributors and machinery service providers depend on imports, access to foreign exchange is critically important.

Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices. This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.