Near Real Time Welfare And Livelihood Impacts Of An Active Civil War Evidence From Ethiopia

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. The analysis uses difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. The findings show that seven months into the conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data on households' exposure to violent conflict, the analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households' access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most affected by the conflict, while farming activities have been relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas have been much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing direct evidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paper highlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

Ethiopia has long prioritized creating more and better jobs as core to its sustainable and inclusive development. However, steady growth in the gross domestic product and gains in agricultural productivity in recent decades have not translated into better opportunities nor increased earnings for much of the population. The 2021 Labor Force Survey data reveal labor trends since 1999 and underscore these realities. Moreover, COVID-19 and other shocks have reinforced the disconnect between positive macroeconomic trends at a national level and stagnant incomes at the household level. Working Today for a Better Tomorrow in Ethiopia: Jobs for Poor and Vulnerable Households outlines how Ethiopia can leverage its social safety net programs to help poor and vulnerable workers earn more in today’s labor market. The government’s latest development planning policies focus on private sector growth and structural transformation to create more and better jobs. While these long-term reforms take hold, the jobs agenda also must include near-term measures to improve worker productivity in and connect people to jobs that already exist. Complementing cash transfers with capital, training, and other services can help workers earn more in their current work, diversify into new types of employment, or connect to available wage jobs.These investments can have an immediate impact for poor people in Ethiopia while also contributing to sustainable and inclusive development.

The war in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray began in November 2020. It inflicted more casualties than any other contemporary conflict in the world. It has also been among the least understood. The fighting and accompanying blockade led to an estimated 600,000 deaths – more than the number who died in the 1984-5 famine. International journalists were banned as the region was sealed off from the outside world by Ethiopian and Eritrean governments prosecuting a strategy designed to crush Tigray at almost any cost. Hatred of Tigrayans was stoked by senior advisers to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed: they have called Tigrayans ‘weeds’ who must be uprooted, their place in history extinguished. Their language was reminiscent of that which preceded the genocide in Rwanda. The war was also orchestrated by Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, who came to wield increasing influence over Ethiopian affairs. It drew in Somali troops as well as Eritrean forces. Peace agreements signed in November 2022 ended the worst of the violence, but without resolving the war’s underlying drivers, which continue to feed a tense and uncertain situation. This book provides the first clear explanation of the factors that led to the conflict, unravelling their roots in Ethiopia’s long and complex history. It describes the battles that were fought at such terrible cost and the immense suffering, particularly of women, who were brutally abused.

This decade has been marked by multiple, often overlapping, crises. The COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, and the ongoing war in Ukraine have all threatened the fabric of our global food systems. But opportunities can be found amid crises, and the world’s food systems have demonstrated surprising resilience. With new evidence on what works, now is the time to rethink how we address food crises. Better prediction, preparation, and resilience building can make future crises less common and less devastating, and improved responses can contribute to greater food security, better nutrition, and sustainable livelihoods.

For the past thirty years-under both Emperor Haile Selassie and President Mengistu Haile Mariam-Ethiopia suffered continuous war and intermittent famine until every single province has been affected by war to some degree. Evil Days, documents the wide range of violations of basic human rights committed by all sides in the conflict, especially the Mengistu government's direct responsibility for the deaths of at least half a million Ethiopian civilians.

Household survey data are very useful for monitoring living conditions of citizens of any country. In developing countries, a lot of this data are collected through “traditional†? face-to-face household surveys. Due to the remote and dispersed nature of many populations in developing countries, but also because of the complex nature of many survey questionnaires, collection of timely welfare data has often proved expensive and logistically challenging. Yet, there is a need for faster, cheaper to collect, lighter, more nimble data collection methods to address data gaps between big household surveys. The recent proliferation of mobile phone networks has opened new possibilities. By combining baseline data from a traditional household survey with subsequent interviews of selected respondents using mobile phones, this facilitates welfare monitoring and opinion polling almost real time. The purpose of this handbook is to contribute to the development of the new field of mobile phone data collection in developing countries. The handbook documents how this innovative approach to data collection works, its advantages and challenges. The handbook draws primarily from the authors’ first-hand experiences with mobile phone surveys in Africa and also benefits from experiences elsewhere. It is intended to serve a diverse audience including those involved in collecting (representative) data using mobile phones, and those using data collected through this approach. For those who will be implementing a mobile phone panel survey, the different chapters guide them through every stage of the implementation process. For potential users of the data collected via mobile phone technology, the handbook presents a new approach to data collection which they can use for monitoring programs and facilitate almost real time decision-making. A further purpose of this book is to contribute to the debate regarding the advantages of the method as well as the challenges associated with it.

Presents an investigation into the causes and consequences of livelihood vulnerability in Somali Region, Ethiopia. People in this region, pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, farmers and traders, have suffered a series of livelihood shocks in recent years, some natural (droughts, livestock disease), others political (a crackdown on contraband trade, bans by Gulf states on livestock imports, violent conflict between (sub-)clans or between Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) militia and the state). As a result of these multiple shocks, and because rainfall in the Horn of Africa has been low in recent years, questions are being asked about the sustainability of pastoralism as a livelihood system, not only in Somali Region but throughout the Greater Horn of Africa.