New Challenges For Macroeconomic Policies

This book examines the economic policies that will underpin the evolution of growth in industrialised economies in coming decades. The change in focus of policymakers away from short-term regulation and policies towards problems of structural change is discussed in relation to the Taylor rule and Fisher relationship. Both empirical observations and quantitative analyses are utilised to explore diverse but interrelating topics, including interest rates dynamics, macroeconomic equilibrium, economic vulnerability, poverty and inequality, environmental sustainability, and monetary and fiscal policies. This book aims to propose policies that can produce economic growth without compromising social stability and environmental balances. It will be of interest to researchers and policymakers working within economic development and policy.

This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

After two decades of successfully restoring price stability in much of the world economy, central banks begin the next millennium facing a new set of challenges. One key task is how to conduct monetary policy in an era of price stability. Clearly, policy-makers would like inflation to remain subdued. But, how should monetary policy procedures be designed to ensure that inflation does not reappear as a serious policy problem? Another important question is whether central banks enjoy greater operational flexibility or face new constraints in an environment of low inflation. On the one hand, operating in a low-inflation environment may give central banks greater leeway to address short-run economic problems without compromising long-run price stability. On the other hand, monetary policy implementation may become more difficult as nominal interest rates approach zero. Recent crises in financial markets around the world pose an additional set of challenges for policy-makers. Indeed, preserving global financial stability and dealing with extreme asset price and exchange rate movements have taken on greater urgency in many recent policy discussions.

Relationships between social policy and human development are the subject of much research and theorizing. The literature in this area, however, examines these issues strictly within national contexts. What influence will international agendas such as NAFTA, the World Summit for Social Development, and Habitat II have? Transnational Social Policies specifically addresses the worldwide trend for national policies on human and social development to be increasingly influenced by agendas that are international, or "transnational," in nature. In doing so, the book examines the underlying international developmental, ethical, economic, and political issues shaping national policies in health, education, and employment in the developing world. This book's focus on the "transnational" character of the social policy debate makes it a truly unique and original contribution to the literature. It will appeal to the academic community, worldwide, in international development, public policy and administration, and social work; policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in the field of public (social) policy; and the international community of individuals and organizations working in international social development.

Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Political legitimacy concerns are heightened, raising issues such as who the policymakers are, what incentives they face, and how the process of policymaking is likely to work under limited legitimacy and high uncertainty both about the macroeconomic environment as well as policy effectiveness. In addition, fragility expands the range of policy objectives in ways that may constrain the attainment of standard macroeconomic objectives. Specifically, in the context of fragility policymakers also need to focus on measures to mitigate fragility itself - i.e., they need to address issues such as regional and ethnic economic disparities, youth unemployment, and food price inflation. Socio-political developments around the world have thus pushed policymakers to broaden their toolkit to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints. The chapters in Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States address these issues, both by giving an analytical context from which policymakers can build to answer the questions they face in fragile situations as well as by providing lessons drawn from empirical analyses and case studies. The first section of the volume discusses the interactions between political economy considerations and macroeconomic policymaking. The second section covers the private sector environment in fragile states. The third section focuses on macroeconomic policy, especially fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, external flows, and aid effectiveness. The last section explains the role of the IMF in fragile states and concludes by presenting case studies from the Middle East and from Sub-Saharan Africa. The contributors to the volume are economists and political scientists from academia as well as policymakers from international organizations and from countries affected by fragility.

Top economists consider how to conduct policy in a world where previous beliefs have been shattered by the recent financial and economic crises. Since 2008, economic policymakers and researchers have occupied a brave new economic world. Previous consensuses have been upended, former assumptions have been cast into doubt, and new approaches have yet to stand the test of time. Policymakers have been forced to improvise and researchers to rethink basic theory. George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate and one of this volume's editors, compares the crisis to a cat stuck in a tree, afraid to move. In April 2013, the International Monetary Fund brought together leading economists and economic policymakers to discuss the slowly emerging contours of the macroeconomic future. This book offers their combined insights. The editors and contributors—who include the Nobel Laureate and bestselling author Joseph Stiglitz, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen, and the former Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer—consider the lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. They discuss, among other things, post-crisis questions about the traditional policy focus on inflation; macroprudential tools (which focus on the stability of the entire financial system rather than of individual firms) and their effectiveness; fiscal stimulus, public debt, and fiscal consolidation; and exchange rate arrangements.

While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms.