Nigeria 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report Staff Statement And Statement By The Executive Director For Nigeria

The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.

Over the last decade, Nigeria’s growth has just about kept up with population dynamics. Poverty has increased, and food insecurity is rising. The government is constrained by low domestic revenue mobilization. Governance problems remain pervasive. The external environment—cost of financing—remains difficult, high oil and gas prices notwithstanding. The new administration has set out on an ambitious reform path to restore macroeconomic stability and develop a pro-growth reform agenda.

Economic recovery continued to broaden in 2022. Higher oil prices are yet to deliver tangible benefits amid contraction of oil production and costly fuel subsidies. Elevated inflation and lingering external sector pressures, if left unaddressed, may exacerbate macroeconomic instability. This could impact growth, food security and ultimately social cohesion given extreme inequality and high poverty. The upcoming elections provide an opportunity for the new administration to advance structural reforms and offer a more prosperous future.

The Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. A weak pre-crisis economy characterized by falling per capita income, double-digit inflation, significant governance vulnerabilities and limited buffers, is grappling with multiple shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. Real output is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2020, with a weak recovery likely to keep per capita income stagnant and no higher than the 2010 level in the medium term. Policy adjustment and reforms are urgently needed to navigate this crisis and change the long-running lackluster course.

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Nigerian economy is exiting recession but remains vulnerable. New foreign exchange measures, rising oil prices, attractive yields on government securities, and a tighter monetary policy have contributed to better foreign exchange availability, increased reserves to a four-year high, and contained inflationary pressures. Economic growth reached 0.8 percent in 2017, driven mainly by recovering oil production. Inflation declined to 15.4 percent year-over-year by end-December, from 18.5 percent at end-2016. Higher oil prices are supporting the near-term projections, but medium-term projections indicate that growth would remain relatively flat, with continuing declines in per capita real GDP under unchanged policies.

This Article IV Consultation highlights that Nigeria’s economy is still recovering from the substantial terms-of-trade shock that triggered the 2016 recession. Persistent structural and policy challenges constrain growth to below the level needed to reduce vulnerabilities and improve development outcomes. With elections now complete, there is a greater chance for faster policy implementation. The authorities’ Economic Recovery and Growth Plan priorities remain appropriate and should be urgently implemented. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation would be required to create space for higher capital and priority spending while improving spending efficiency and strengthening governance. A comprehensive package of urgent policy reforms is required to address vulnerabilities and raise growth over the medium term. The IMF staff suggested that strengthening banking sector resilience requires increasing capital buffers. This includes extending the no dividend distribution rule to all banks with high restructured loans.

This paper discusses outlook and risk for Nigeria. Its economy has been hit hard by global developments that have aggravated longstanding development weaknesses. Macrofinancial outcomes are closely linked with the price of oil. Policy uncertainty has amplified the impact of global developments. The large permanent terms-of-trade shock requires a significant macroeconomic adjustment. It is important to initiate urgently an integrated package of policies centered on a fundamental change in the nature of government; reducing external imbalances (including real exchange rate realignment); further safeguarding the resilience and improving the efficiency of the banking sector; and implementing structural reforms for inclusive growth.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights low oil prices’ and falling oil production’s blow to the Nigerian economy. The country entered a recession in 2016, with growth contracting by 1.5 percent. Annual inflation doubled to 18.6 percent, reflecting higher electricity costs and fuel tariffs, a weaker naira, and accommodating monetary conditions. Even with significantly lower capital spending, the consolidated fiscal deficit increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016. Under unchanged policies, the outlook remains challenging and growth would pick up only slightly to 0.8 percent in 2017, mostly reflecting some recovery in oil production and a continuing strong performance in agriculture.