On Escalation

In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.

In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.

Written by award-winning author, highly experienced mediator, and co-founder of the Prison of Peace project, Douglas E. Noll, De-Escalate gives you the proven process to calm any angry person or volatile situation in 90 seconds or less. Based on the practical experience of a master mediator and grounded in the latest findings in neuroscience, Douglas Noll offers his proven process—to empower you to successfully and efficiently de-escalate an angry person or volatile situation in 90 seconds or less—and how to apply this skill in all areas of life. We live in a more socially polarized time nationally and globally than ever before, as arguments easily flare up, aggression and bullying rises, and lines are drawn over politics, religion, and ideology. De-Escalate provides a new set of social listening and communication skills that solve the problem of what to do with angry, emotional people. The quick and effective techniques detailed in De-Escalate will help anyone dealing with this increase in anger from outside sources or anger in themselves. With simple, easy-to-understand steps, De-Escalate walks you through real-life examples and scenario-based conversations in order to create resolutions, build emotional intelligence, and cultivate empathy and healing. This book will teach the precise tools to master becoming a peacemaker, cultivating ways to co-exist and co-respect others in an increasingly hostile world.

A fourth edition of this textbook is now available. This popular, highly regarded, and comprehensive book synthesizes pertinent theories and evidence about diverse conflicts. Kriesberg examines the strategies that partisans and intermediaries can use to minimize the destructiveness of these conflicts. Not only does he examine large-scale forces that affect the various stages of conflict, but also the elements that contribute to constructive transformations at each stage. The diverse conflicts discussed are; the American civil rights struggle, the struggle for women's rights, apartheid in South Africa, labor-management relations, Palestinian-Israeli relations, protecting the environment, the Cold War, and countering terrorism, as well as conflicts in Northern Ireland, Chiapas, Mexico, and Sri Lanka. In addition to updating the conflicts examined in earlier editions, this new edition examines current issues, pertaining to ethical concerns, ideological and religious developments, and the changing global role of the United States.

This unique book on international business presents a critical review of the role of bounded rationality in internationalization process (IP) research. Corporate internationalization processes have been a subject of scientific debate for several decades. However, it is questionable whether behavioral research insights are sufficiently acknowledged in this academic discipline. Against this backdrop, the author critically assesses the behavioral assumptions of the Uppsala Model, which is commonly considered to be the pivotal approach in internationalization process research.

This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

Coalition Management and Escalation Control in a Multinuclear World examines the impact of new technologies on twenty-first-century crisis management and armed conflict, as well as the unprecedented number and types of actors involved in current and potential flash-points. The book's basic thesis is that new technologies are changing how wars are fought and providing a broadening range of escalation options. Cyber weapons and artificial intelligence, as well as social media, blur traditional escalation thresholds with important consequences for deterrence. Nuclear weapons possessors, especially nations and powers new to their use, may have differing strategies concerning how, when, why, or where such weapons should be used either for purposes of deterrence or as actual warfighting instruments. Today's global map differs drastically from all previous eras, not only in the types and numbers of actors but also in the level of lethality, as well as the range and accuracy of weapons available with which to threaten or actually conduct battle. A world of Great Power competition, together with non-state armed groups contains risks for miscalculation including the possibility of catalytic warfare.

This volume examines the point where the concepts and practices of escalation and negotiation meet.