Optimal Currency Areas In East Asia

There is a deepening debate in East Asia about the prospects for common exchange rate arrangements, even including the formation of a common currency in the longer term. This raises a complex set of issues and this volume provides a detailed yet comprehensive examination of key issues in the debate. It looks, for example, at the nature and extent of linkages in East Asia, in terms of trade and foreign investment, finance, labour, and consumption, investment and output. It examines how the exchange rate affects various aspects of economies. And it critically analyzes various proposals for currency regimes for the region, including floating exchange rates, basket pegs, and currency union.

A coordinated action by East Asian countries to stabilize their currencies against a common basket of major currencies (broadly representative of their average structure of trade and foreign direct investment) would help stabilize both intraregional exchange rates and effective exchange rates, in a way consistent with the medium-term objective of promoting trade investment and growth in the region.

"Analyzes the feasibility of continued exchange rate pegging in East Asia and explores alternatives, including some form of regional monetary integration. Argues for coordinating the adjustment of Asian currencies against the dollar and sketches scenarios for the creation of an Asian central bank and a single Asian currency"--Provided by publisher.

East Asia's Monetary Future is an illuminating and valuable work which uniquely focuses on a long-term monetary view of the region. There are multiple and varied future scenarios which can be applied to this region - an enlarged Singapore-Brunei currency area, a greater China monetary bloc and even a Northeast Asian bloc comprising Japan and Korea. Leading scholars from East Asia, Europe and the US contribute valuable new insights to the key questions facing the organization and future of the monetary system in East Asia. Central questions discussed and analysed in the book include, amongst others: should the region move towards monetary union? Should countries peg their exchange rates to the US dollar? Is complete dollarization an option for East Asia? The authors argue that, having realized price stability over the last twenty years, in contrast to Latin America and Africa, the next logical step would be the gradual formation of various currency blocs within the region. This comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues at stake will ensure the book's appeal to academics and researchers of Asian studies and financial economics. Financial experts working in this area and policymakers will also find much of interest to them within this book.

Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.