People S Republic Of China 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For The People S Republic Of China

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

Following an impressive recovery from the initial impact of the pandemic, China’s growth has slowed significantly in 2022. It remains under pressure as more transmissible variants have led to recurring outbreaks that have dampened mobility, the real estate crisis remains unresolved, and global demand has slowed. Macroeconomic policies have been eased appropriately, but their effectiveness has been diminished by a focus on enterprises and increasingly less effective traditional infrastructure investment rather than support to households. The pandemic and its impacts have also been a setback to economic rebalancing toward private consumption and to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A slowdown in growth-enhancing reforms against the backdrop of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation pressures stand in the way of a much-needed lift to productivity growth, weighing on China’s medium-term growth potential.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) discusses that the economy is projected to start recovering next year, but the pace is expected to be gradual and both near- and medium-term risks have increased significantly, including from trade and technology tensions, ongoing social unrest, and structural challenges of insufficient housing supply and high income inequality. Hong Kong SAR is well placed to address both cyclical and structural challenges with its significant buffers thanks to its long history of prudent macroeconomic policies. Given that the fiscal framework permits deficits during economic downturns, government spending should be increased significantly in the areas of social safety nets, education/retraining, and infrastructure to cope with the cyclical downturn and address structural challenges of insufficient housing and high-income inequality. This should be complemented with measures to ensure fiscal sustainability and greater equity.

This book examines EU and US bilateral trade and investment relations with China, their attempts to level the economic playing field and to narrow the ‘reciprocity gap’ in market openness. It explores the extent of EU and US policy change, the underlying factors accounting for this change and compares EU and US foreign economic policy answers to an adversary increasingly perceived as an unfair economic competitor and as a systemic rival. The book covers a broad range of policy areas from ‘trade wars’, trade defense instruments, their reform and use, investment screening, and export control to industrial policies. It makes eclectic use of different strands of International Relations, International Political Economy and Policy Analysis theorizing to account for the extent of, and differences in, the EU and US responses. The People’s Republic of China’s stellar economic and political rise combined with the resilience of its unfair trade practices, its reinforced authoritarian repression at home and its ever more assertive foreign (economic) policy has triggered a shift in perceptions of China, followed by equally profound policy change in the European Union and the US. This book expertly charts and explains this significant shift in stance. This book will be of key interest to scholars, students and practitioners in the fields of EU trade policymaking, US foreign/ foreign economic policy, EU-China-US economic relations, European political economy, and more broadly to European studies, Asian studies, International Relations, International Political Economy, and transatlantic relations.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights China’s continuing transition to a more sustainable growth path and the advance of reforms across a wide domain. Growth slowed to 6.7 percent in 2016 and is projected to remain robust, at 6.7 percent, in 2017 owing to the momentum from last year’s policy support, strengthening external demand, and progress in domestic reforms. Inflation rose to 2 percent in 2016 and is expected to remain stable, at 2 percent, in 2017. Essential supervisory and regulatory action is being taken against financial sector risks, and corporate debt is growing more slowly, reflecting restructuring initiatives and overcapacity reduction.

Following an impressive recovery from the initial impact of the pandemic, China’s growth has slowed significantly in 2022. It remains under pressure as more transmissible variants have led to recurring outbreaks that have dampened mobility, the real estate crisis remains unresolved, and global demand has slowed. Macroeconomic policies have been eased appropriately, but their effectiveness has been diminished by a focus on enterprises and increasingly less effective traditional infrastructure investment rather than support to households. The pandemic and its impacts have also been a setback to economic rebalancing toward private consumption and to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A slowdown in growth-enhancing reforms against the backdrop of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation pressures stand in the way of a much-needed lift to productivity growth, weighing on China’s medium-term growth potential.

In light of the growing global economic importance of East Asia, this book analyzes and compares the extraordinary development paths and strategies of Japan, South Korea, and China. It examines both the factors that enabled these countries’ prolonged periods of high-speed economic growth, and the reasons for their subsequent “cool-downs.” In addition, the book illustrates how their development strategies served as role models for one another, and what current and future developing countries can learn from the East Asian success stories. This book will appeal to scholars and students of economics and development studies with an interest in the East Asian development model.