Planning Alternative World Futures

"Addresses ... the concept and design of alternative futures for such urgent world problems as international and national security systems, populations, diminishing natural resources, environmental deterioration, and the widening gap between rich and poor"--Cover 4.

In the early stages of planning the Third International Conference in System Science in Health Care, the steering committee members, most of whom had participated in the first conference in Paris (1976) and the second in Montreal (1980), made some basic decisions about organization of subject matter. The earlier meetings had been very successful in bringing together specialists from the health professions and the traditional sciences. In addition to physicians and nurses, these were representatives of the disciplines of the behavioral sciences, system theory, economics, engineering, and the emergency fields of management science and informatics -all concerned with the development of health resources in a broad system context. The reported research and experience of the many disciplines represented had dealt with one or more of three concerns: 1) a major health problem, such as cardiovascular disease, or an important popUlation at risk, such as the elderly or children or workers; 2) some generic aspect of organization and decision making, including trial and evaluation ofinnovative health strategies; and 3) the methodology of research and analysis in system of health service. The challenge to the conference organizers lay in the eliciting and arranging of experiences in such a way that the health services could be seen as purposeful,living, evolving systems.

Alternative Urban Futures challenges existing models of urban development and promotes alternative paradigms, processes, and technologies designed to fulfill human needs and limit the harmful impacts of human activities on the environment. The book focuses on how planners and policy makers can develop and manage essential urban infrastructures in ways that support sustainable development in the areas of waste management, water supply and management, energy production and use, building design and construction, land-use, transportation, and food systems. Each chapter features case studies that provide concrete examples of how ecologically and socially responsible urban and sustainable development planning and policy approaches have been successfully implemented in cities around the world. The book is especially effective in its emphasis on recently published statistics and writing supporting new planning and policy recommendations. Each chapter ends with a summary, accompanied by a list of questions that can be addressed with information provided in the text.

COVID-19 wrecked the plans and strategies of organizations everywhere, while injecting greater uncertainty into a world already undergoing disruptive social and technological change. Strategic Foresight can help us navigate through the recovery and beyond. Strategic Foresight is a systematic, intelligence-gathering, vision-building process that helps us manage uncertainty by discerning plausible alternative futures and applying the insights to present-day planning. It is ideally suited to a world upended by the pandemic and rapid transformations in the way we live, work and interact. Using approachable language and a multitude of examples, Learning from Tomorrow shows how Strategic Foresight broadens our perspectives, exposes opportunities and risks, and opens our minds to innovation in a post-pandemic world. It is essential reading for organizational leaders and those responsible for developing strategies, scenarios, policies and plans.

This futures book reflects the global trends and events of the recent past of today that are bringing about change to the world's political, economic, social, technological, and military environments. Provides a set of plausible scenarios against which users can build policies and decisions while anticipating and judging their consequences before implementation. Useful for strategic planning through active and reserve components of the U.S. military. Also useful for long-range planning by business, industry, academia, and other private and governmental organizations. Charts, tables and drawings. Also includes a 21-page study, "Creating Strategic Visions."

This book connects political economy perspectives with scenario planning for mapping out future trajectories of digital ecosystems. The focus is purposefully on digital ecosystems as it encompasses economic, political and social contexts on a global, national and local level. The diversity of political economy approaches allows the author to explore alternative meanings of digital ecosystem development, which is particularly useful for envisioning alternative futures. Often visions about the future of digital ecosystems suffer from a lack of imagination and confirmation bias which is favorable to the extrapolation of current trends. A wide range of political economy perspectives applied through positivist theorizing in this book shows different interpretations of developments in digital ecosystems. Scenario planning teams around the world have applied a collective imagination to show how future trajectories can be radically different from the current trends. The book outlines meta-scenarios for alternative futures of the political economy of digital ecosystems by reviewing and synthesizing the work of foresight teams. These meta-scenarios served as insights for developing four scenarios for European digital ecosystems through the workshops with high-level executives and experts. The scenarios identified the nature of EU cooperation and the development of digital infrastructure as key drivers. These four scenarios developed in the workshops are further operationalized in a specific context by exploring the implications for Estonia as well as for Chinese investments in European platforms. This exercise shows how scenarios of digital ecosystems can be used for stress-testing decisions and strategies. Decision-makers, students, scholars and other stakeholders in a wide range of industries ranging from academia to ride-sharing can use the scenarios for reframing different development trajectories and future-proofing their strategies. The scenarios can be further developed and modified for specific purposes and contexts as they are not written in stone.

Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)