Predicting Semiconductor Business Trends After Moore S Law

The semiconductor industry exhibited life cycles that were longer than the disk drive industry but had the same free market characteristics. Over time this unfettered competition followed trends in a worldwide market that could be quantified and used to predict the future. Over the past forty years or more, I've collected data and made presentations showing how the actual economics and technology of the semiconductor industry can be used to predict its future direction and magnitude. This book is built upon excerpts of presentations made during the last thirty years that analyze the business and technology of the semiconductor industry. In most cases, the figures in the book are copies of the original slides as they were presented during one or more of those presentations. In general, they show how predictable the semiconductor industry has been. They should also provide insight into the future of the industry.

The semiconductor industry exhibited life cycles that were longer than the disk drive industry but had the same free market characteristics. Over time this unfettered competition followed trends in a worldwide market that could be quantified and used to predict the future. Over the past forty years or more, I've collected data and made presentations showing how the actual economics and technology of the semiconductor industry can be used to predict its future direction and magnitude. This book is built upon excerpts of presentations made during the last thirty years that analyze the business and technology of the semiconductor industry. In most cases, the figures in the book are copies of the original slides as they were presented during one or more of those presentations. In general, they show how predictable the semiconductor industry has been. They should also provide insight into the future of the industry.

This book provides a methodological understanding of the theoretical and technical limitations to the longevity of Moore’s law. The book presents research on factors that have significant impact on the future of Moore’s law and those factors believed to sustain the trend of the last five decades. Research findings show that boundaries of Moore’s law primarily include physical restrictions of scaling electronic components to levels beyond that of ordinary manufacturing principles and approaching the bounds of physics. The research presented in this book provides essential background and knowledge to grasp the following principles: Traditional and modern photolithography, the primary limiting factor of Moore’s law Innovations in semiconductor manufacturing that makes current generation CMOS processing possible Multi-disciplinary technologies that could drive Moore's law forward significantly Design principles for microelectronic circuits and components that take advantage of technology miniaturization The semiconductor industry economic market trends and technical driving factors The complexity and cost associated with technology scaling have compelled researchers in the disciplines of engineering and physics to optimize previous generation nodes to improve system-on-chip performance. This is especially relevant to participate in the increased attractiveness of the Internet of Things (IoT). This book additionally provides scholarly and practical examples of principles in microelectronic circuit design and layout to mitigate technology limits of previous generation nodes. Readers are encouraged to intellectually apply the knowledge derived from this book to further research and innovation in prolonging Moore’s law and associated principles.

The United States, Taiwan, and China are bound within a "silicon triangle." Semiconductors link our geopolitics, our ongoing economic prosperity, and our technological competitiveness. This book draws on the deliberations of a multidisciplinary Hoover Institution–Asia Society working group of technologists, economists, military strategists, industry players, and regional policy experts to contemplate the dynamic global supply chain in semiconductors—one in which US industry faces growing vulnerabilities, China aggressively promotes home-grown semiconductor mastery, and Taiwan finds itself with a crucial monopoly on high-end logic chips sought by buyers globally. Silicon Triangle seeks to present a balanced view of how policies of the United States and its partners around semiconductors can increase the resilience of shared supply chains—and contribute to deterring conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

The aim of this book is to provide detailed and technical reviews on all factors that have influenced Moore's law and all factors that play a role in determining its longevity for future technologies. These factors additionally include design-for-manufacturability and considerations in microelectronic circuit architecture which aims to provide designers and researchers to implement circuit layout techniques which take advantage of advanced processing techniques that increase feature density and circuit yield--

Hosted by Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, this symposium brought together leading technologists and economists to review technical challenges facing the semiconductor industry, the industry's business cycle, the interconnections between the two, and the implications of growth in semiconductors for the economy as a whole. This volume includes a summary of the symposium proceedings and three major research papers. Topics reviewed encompass the industry technology roadmap, challenges to be overcome to maintain the trajectory of Moore's Law, the drivers of the continued growth in productivity in the U.S. economy, and economic models for gaining a better understanding of this leading U.S. industry.

Writings by thinkers ranging from Rokeya Sakhawat Hossain to Bruno Latour that focus on the interconnections of technology, society, and values. Technological change does not happen in a vacuum; decisions about which technologies to develop, fund, market, and use engage ideas about values as well as calculations of costs and benefits. In order to influence the development of technology for the better, we must first understand how technology and society are inextricably bound together. These writings--by thinkers ranging from Bruno Latour to Francis Fukuyama--help us do just that, examining how people shape technology and how technology shapes people. This second edition updates the original significantly, offering twenty-one new essays along with fifteen from the first edition. The book first presents visions of the future that range from technological utopias to cautionary tales and then introduces several major STS theories. It examines human and social values and how they are embedded in technological choices and explores the interesting and subtle complexities of the technology-society relationship. Remedying a gap in earlier theorizing in the field, many of the texts illustrate how race and gender are intertwined with technology. Finally, the book offers a set of readings that focus on the sociotechnical challenges we face today, treating topics that include cybersecurity, geoengineering, and the myth of neutral technology.