Private Bank Lending And Developing Country Debt

The primary questions addressed by this study, first published in 1988, focus on how private bankers made decisions on the creditworthiness of developing countries during the 1970s and what the implications of these decision rules are for the developing countries today. Based on interviews with senior bankers about their decision rules, the author has developed artificial intelligence-based simulations of their images of creditworthiness. Discussed are contemporary proposals for solving the debt crisis.

Developing Country Debt presents a variety of views and perspectives on the topic of debt in developing countries, with emphasis on the revolutionary effects of the post-1973 OPEC oil prices on the world's economic system. The book shows how the problem of developing country debt has become inexorably intertwined with the successful functioning of the global economic system. This book is comprised of 14 chapters and opens with a historical overview of developing nations' debt before turning to LDC debt since the 1973 OPEC price increases and the developing countries' abilities to carry debt. The myths of debt are also analyzed from a banker's perspective. The next section presents case studies detailing the economic and political conditions of selected countries with substantial debt and varying degrees of economic difficulty, including the Philippines, Jamaica, Turkey, and Peru. The remaining chapters examine alternative proposals for debt relief and place the analysis of developing country debt in a broader, global context. LDC debt is considered from three perspectives: the development needs of LDCs; the safety and soundness of United States banks; and the U.S. national interest. The role of the International Monetary Fund as a lender of last resort is also considered. The final chapter assesses the implications of debt for trade and the prospects for world economic growth. This monograph will be of interest to economists, bankers, politicians, and policymakers.

Banks are an integral element of the Third World debt problems but their activities have received little direct analysis. This work investigates various aspects of commercial bank lending to developing countries, examining past behaviour and looking at the likely future evolution of bank lending.

This monograph systematically examines about two dozen widely discussed options for modifying international lending, ranging from modest revisions in terms to sweeping debt relief.

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Examining the causes of the acute Latin American debt crisis that began in mid-1982, North American analysts have typically focused on deficiencies in the debtor countries' economic policies and on shocks from the world economy. Much less emphasis has been placed on the role of the region's principal creditors--private banks--in the development of the crisis. Robert Devlin rounds out the story of Latin America's debt problem by demonstrating that the banks were an endogenous source of instability in the region's debt cycle, as they overexpanded on the upside and overcontracted on the downside. Originally published in 1990. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.