Productivity Growth And Convergence In Agriculture And Manufacturing

The growth of agricultural productivity is widely believed to be low. But this study finds the productivity rate in agriculture to be higher than that in manufacturing, both on average and for groups of countries at different stages of development. This suggests that a large agricultural sector need not be a disadvantage for growth performance, and may be an advantage.

The growth of agricultural productivity is widely believed to be low. But this study finds the productivity growth rate in agriculture to be higher than that in manufacturing, both on average and for groups of countries at different stages of development. This suggests that a large agricultural sector need not be a disadvantage for growth performance - and may be an advantage.Martin and Mitra examine the growth and convergence of total factor productivity in agriculture and manufacturing in a large sample of countries spanning many levels of development over the period 1967-92. There is a widely held but rarely tested view that the rate of growth in agricultural productivity is invariably low. But Martin and Mitra find that the rate of productivity growth in agriculture has been higher than in manufacturing both on average and for groups of countries at different stages of development.Martin and Mitra find evidence of high rates of technical progress in both agriculture and manufacturing. At all levels of development, however, technical progress appears to have been faster in agriculture than in manufacturing.Moreover, there appears to be a stronger tendency for levels and growth rates of total factor productivity to converge in agriculture than in manufacturing - suggesting that international dissemination of innovations has been relatively rapid in agriculture.These results may well reflect the important investments in agricultural research and development in recent decades. They also highlight the need to continue developing and disseminating innovations if countries are to maintain high rates of productivity growth.This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between trade and growth.

Increasing food prices have renewed concerns about long-term agricultural demand and supply in the global economy. This book looks at results, methods, and data on international agricultural productivity for a better understanding of long-run trends and the policies that determine them. By presenting an international assessment of total factor productivity growth in agriculture, including up-to-date empirical analysis for developed and developing countries and regions, it provides a response to the rising global scarcity of agricultural production. It is essential reading for researchers, poli.

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

After nearly two centuries of lagging behind the industrial countries, growth in many developing countries has surged since the early 1990s. This outperformance has major implications for almost all areas of agricultural economics and, if continued, will likely do so into the future. This paper aims to identify the key ways in which the changes in rich and poor country growth rates matter for agricultural economists, as a basis for formulating better research agendas. A key impact arises through sharp increases in demand for agricultural resources as demand for livestock products increases. This changing structure of food demand has important implications for nutrition studies and policies, with the emergence of a double burden of malnutrition. On the supply side, growth in developing countries tends to increase domestic food supply, which is also boosted by increases in research and development spending. Growth in developing countries both stimulates and benefits from increases in infrastructure investment, evaluation of which requires new analytical tools discussed at this conference. Negative impacts include the contribution of increased demand for livestock products to global greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of trade policy, developing country growth is tending to lead to convergence of agricultural policies with the pattern of assistance seen in today’s developed countries, raising concerns about the future need to deal with collective action problems, particularly those that increase the volatility of world prices.

First published in 1995. Based on a detailed adjustment for the quality of inputs and outputs, this study develops state-level measures for total factor productivity growth in US agriculture which are used to determine (i) the presence and determinants of convergence across states; (ii) the contribution of individual factors of production to productivity growth; (iii) the importance of spillovers across states; (iv) the economic effects of, returns to, and factor biases of research and extension. This title will be of great interest to students of economics and agriculture.

In this paper, we study the transformation process Indian agriculture exhibited in the recent past, studying its policy implications. Between the years 2005-06 and 2015-16, more than 52 million workers left agriculture, which did not have any effect on agricultural output due to productivity improvements. We estimate the contribution of productivity growth and structural change in agriculture to national productivity growth during 1981-2016. We estimate differentials in agricultural productivity and in their ability to contribute to the structural change process for 21 major states of India. Using revised employment estimates, we trace major changes during the pre-reforms (before 1991) and post-reforms periods. Results show that in the pre-reforms period, the impact of productivity improvements in agriculture on agricultural output was equated by the new workforce entering into this sector, leading to a stagnant labor productivity trend. The labor-shift from agriculture during the early years of the post-reforms period, which increased further in the next decade, has led to a consistent rise in agricultural productivity. In the absence of reforms and the associated labor shift, the productivity growth in Indian agriculture would have been much lower. A similar labor shift during the last decade has not affected agricultural output, which has risen more rapidly. This result holds true for almost all states studied. There exists a positive relation between labor-shift and agricultural output in a cluster of states. Decomposition results indicate ‘within-sector’ productivity growth is the major source of overall growth, with a rising contribution of ‘structural change’. Studying the sources of growth across states offers new scope to achieve inter-sectoral productivity convergence.