Projected Timber Scarcities In The Pacific Northwest

Projected Timber Scarcities in the Pacific Northwest: A Critique of 11 Studies

Researchers involved with the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station Sustainable Wood Production Initiative have outlined some of the barriers and opportunities for sustainable wood production in the region. Sustainable wood production is defined as the capacity of forests to produce wood, products, and services on a long-term basis and in the context of human activity and use. The collective findings of these papers suggest that in the future, the regions wood supply will primarily come from private land, and the barriers and opportunities related to sustainable wood production will have more to do with future markets, harvest potential, land use changes, and sustainable forestry options than with traditional sustained yield outputs. Private lands in the PNW should be able to sustain recent historical harvest levels over the next 50 years, but regional changes in sawmilling capacity and uncertain market conditions may affect wood production in the region. Public perceptions of forestry, land use changes, and alternative forestry options are also discussed. These papers present preliminary findings and proposals for future work designed to help us understand the key issues related to sustainable wood production.

The Pacific Northwest forest resource is highly dynamic. Expected changes over the next 50 years will greatly challenge some current perceptions of resource managers and various stakeholders. This report describes the current and expected future timberland conditions of western Oregon and Washington and presents the results at the county level. About 50 percent of the timber removals in this region will come from 10 west-side counties, and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) will remain the major species removed. Forest industry will account for 50 percent of the total harvest in the Pacific Northwest West. Some inferences about the attributes of future timber and its utilization will be drawn from the projections at the county level over the next half century.

Timber markets in the U.S. are areas where timber prices tend to be uniform because of the continuous interactions of buyers and sellers. These markets are highly competitive, volatile, and change relentlessly. This report looks at how market interactions in the Pacific Northwest have responded to changes in underlying determinants of market behavior and government actions that have influenced supply or demand. Several messages emerge from timber markets about price reporting and changing definitions of price, long-term price trends, timber as an investment, impacts of market intervention, relations among different markets, and implications for future stewardship. Charts, tables and graphs.