Projecting Migration

Migration has rapidly become a fundamental component of modern life and increasingly determines who we are and how we define ourselves. This text explains the phenomena of mobility and displacement through essays, films, photography and audio recordings.

Here are country -by -country recommendations for revising the World Bank's previous estimates and projections of net international migration for the period 1980-2000, for use in the Bank's World development projections. Net migration figures for most major sending and receiving countries should be revised upward.

In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.

Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

This volume is devoted to three key themes central to studies in regional science: the sub-national labor market, migration, and mobility, and their analysis. The book brings together essays that cover a wide range of topics including the development of uncertainty in national and subnational population projections; the impacts of widening and deepening human capital; the relationship between migration, neighborhood change, and area-based urban policy; the facilitating role played by outmigration and remittances in economic transition; and the contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants. All of the contributions here are by leading figures in their fields and employ state-of-the art methodologies. Given the variety of topics and themes covered this book, it will appeal to a broad range of readers interested in both regional science and related disciplines such as demography, population economics, and public policy.

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Projecting Migration is an integrated book/DVD-ROM anthology, comprising contributions from scholars/practitioners working across transnational locations as diverse as the US/Mexico border, southern Africa, Lebanon and Ireland, and different media formats - documentary film, video, photography, radio and new media. It provides a timely foregrounding of audiovisual practice-based scholarship as a transdisciplinary engagement with the material and embodied dimensions of migration, together with the changing conditions of place and locality. This volume gives prominence to collaborative research processes conducted across the arts, humanities and social sciences, and the fieldwork practices surrounding the assemblage and dissemination of documentary media. Thematically, the contributors address economic and forced migration, border crossings, uprootings, diasporic history and memory, migration and childhood, the transnational family, post-conflict landscapes, migrant youth culture and photographic archives of migration; the DVD-ROM offers the reader a viewing source of selective media content referenced in the chapters. Book jacket.