Proposed Strategy For A Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement In Post Crisis East Asia

A coordinated action by East Asian countries to stabilize their currencies against a common basket of major currencies (broadly representative of their average structure of trade and foreign direct investment) would help stabilize both intraregional exchange rates and effective exchange rates, in a way consistent with the medium-term objective of promoting trade investment and growth in the region.

A coordinated action by East Asian countries to stabilize their currencies against a common basket of major currencies (broadly representative of their average structure of trade and foreign direct investment) would help stabilize both intra-regional exchange rates and effective exchange rates - in a way consistent with the medium-term objective of promoting trade, investment, and growth in the region. After discussing major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, Kawai and Takagi propose a regional exchange rate arrangement designed to promote intraregional exchange rate stability and regional economic growth. They argue that:For developing countries, exchange rate volatility tends to significantly hurt trade and investment, making it inadvisable to adopt a system of freely floating exchange rates.Given the high share of intraregional trade and the similarity of trade composition in East Asia, exchange rate policy should be directed toward maintaining intraregional exchange rate stability, to promote trade, investment, and economic growth.The current policy of maintaining exchange rate stability against the U.S. dollar as an informal, uncoordinated mechanism for ensuring intraregional exchange rate stability is suboptimal. A pragmatic policy option - conducive to a more robust framework for cooperation in monetary and exchange rate policy - would be a coordinated action to shift the target of nominal exchange rate stability to a basket of tripolar currencies (the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro). This alternative would better reflect the region's diverse structure of trade and foreign direct investment.The authors envision no rigid peg. Instead, at least initially, each country could choose its own formal exchange rate arrangement - be it a currency board, a crawling peg, or a basket peg with wide margins. At times of crisis, the peg might be temporarily suspended, subject to the rule that the exchange rate would be restored to the original level as soon as practical. Only in extreme circumstances would the level be adjusted to reflect new equilibrium conditions.This paper - a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to study financial market development, capital flows, and exchange rate arrangements in East Asia.

The global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis have led to a profound rethink in East Asia about the international monetary system and regional monetary and financial integration. After the East Asian crisis of 1997, deeper regional cooperation was seen as the way to avoid reliance on the IMF and the rest of the world. Steps were taken, but they were limited because of disagreements reflecting regional rivalries. Still, integration into the global financial system and Europe's regional process were seen as objectives to be adapted to East Asia, as detailed in an overview chapter. The crises have shaken this strategy but also revealed the pre-existing deep disagreements. This book presents contributions by scholars from different countries. Each one was invited to describe the vision of their policymakers. The traidtional rivalry between China and Japan, the region's largest economies, reveals Chinese confidence into its rising power and Japanese growing doubts about its ability to weigh on the debate. For opposite reasons, both display a declining interest into regional cooperation. Korea and the ASEAN countries do not wish to choose between the regional powers but remain attached to regional cooperation and integration. They look for pragmatic solutions that recognize the value-chain characteristic of trade. Additional contributions by US and European scholars provide evaluations of the global and Eurozone crises and of their relevance for East Asian integration.

Numerous ideas for monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia have been proposed both within and outside the region since the financial crisis in Asia. Despite this strong level of interest, however, there are few studies that aim to comprehensively address the issue from multiple perspectives. This insightful book redresses the balance and illustrates how East Asian countries plan to take advantage of their rising economic power in rearranging the new international monetary and financial order in the post-crisis era. The expert contributors examine the history, conditions and current efforts towards monetary integration in Asia and explore possible future paths, highlighting the roles and perspectives of East Asian countries in the integration process. They consider how East Asian economies could establish their own zone of monetary stability, and show that monetary stability cannot be separately addressed from the issues of economic growth and solidarity. Without economic growth and solidarity, there would be no purpose in pursuing monetary integration, therefore all three challenges must be simultaneously addressed. Against this backdrop, the book tackles the issues of East Asian monetary integration underpinned by the broad framework of economic growth and solidarity. Scholars of economics, monetary integration, Asian studies and regionalism will find this book to be an illuminating and thought-provoking read.

This paper examines the behavior of the exchange rates of selected emerging market East Asian economies in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. The results suggest that movements in the Asia-5 currencies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand) were significantly influenced by the U.S. dollar's day-to-day movements before the crisis, and have indeed continued to do so post-crisis. However, comparisons with a range of other currencies suggest that this is a fairly common trait across various regimes. Moreover, results from the post-crisis data do not support the view that the Asia-5 currencies presently have the same characteristics as they did before the crisis.

Leading scholars from East Asia, Europe and the US contribute new insights to the key questions facing the organization and future of the monetary system in East Asia. Central questions discussed and analysed in the book include, amongst others: should the region move towards monetary union? Should countries peg their exchange rates to the US dollar? Is complete dollarization an option for East Asia? The authors argue that, having realized price stability over the last twenty years, in contrast to Latin America and Africa, the next logical step would be the gradual formation of various currency blocs within the region. This comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues at stake will ensure the book's appeal to academics and researchers of Asian studies and financial economics. Financial experts working in this area and policymakers will also find much of interest to them within this book.

Until the currency crisis of 1997, East Asia was hailed around the world as a model of economic growth and development. However, when the crisis struck, East Asian countries found themselves struggling without the regional cooperation frameworks that had been established by the other major economic regions of the world. The establishment of a strong East Asian regional cooperation framework has become a vital policy challenge in the post-crisis period. In February 2002 a group of leading Asian economic policy experts came together to discuss the future of East Asian regionalism at the "Co-design for a New East Asia" symposium hosted by the Economic Research Center of Nagoya University. This book brings together the key papers from that symposium and strongly argues the case for an East Asian regionalism while addressing the potential barriers to such a framework. The book is of interest to everyone concerned about the economic future of East Asia in a post-crisis globalized economy.

With the rise of China, India and the re-emergence of East Asia from the financial crisis of 1997–98, monetary issues in Asia have acquired great significance as the region holds the largest reserves in the world and consequently plays a major role in the global macro-economy. In addition, there are also a great variety of monetary policy regimes at play in the region – reflecting each country's needs and policy preferences. This volume explores monetary, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies in Asia. A particular question that is analysed is Asia's experience since the crisis with the use of monetary policy to manage the resurgence in capital inflows. It also examines the theoretical and policy issues associated with international capital flows, the increasing degree of integration of financial markets and exchange rates for emerging Asian economies. The book is unique in focussing on China, India and Southeast Asia, rather than just having a sub-regional or country-specific focus. Rigorous empirical analysis is applied to important practical policy issues. The book also provides accessible overviews of recent research relevant to the questions that are explored and is written throughout in a manner that is accessible to policy makers, students and business/financial journalists.