Quantitative Risk Assessment

Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies. Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.

CDRM 5 explains the the practical aspects of using quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to develop optimal engineering designs that mitigate the effects of natural hazards, especially on civil infrastructure.

Fire safety regulations in many countries require Fire Risk Assessment to be carried out for buildings such as workplaces and houses in multiple occupation. This duty is imposed on a "Responsible Person" and also on any other persons having control of buildings in compliance with the requirements specified in the regulations. Although regulations only require a qualitative assessment of fire risk, a quantitative assessment is an essential first step for performing cost-benefit analysis of alternative fire strategies to comply with the regulations and selecting the most cost-effective strategy. To facilitate this assessment, various qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative techniques of fire risk assessment, already developed, are critically reviewed in this book and some improvements are suggested. This book is intended to be an expanded version of Part 7: Probabilistic risk assessment, 2003, a Published Document (PD) to British Standard BS 7974: 2001 on the Application of Fire Safety Engineering Principles to the Design of Buildings. Ganapathy Ramachandran and David Charters were co-authors of PD 7974 Part 7. Quantitative Risk Assessment in Fire Safety is essential reading for consultants, academics, fire safety engineers, fire officers, building control officers and students in fire safety engineering. It also provides useful tools for fire protection economists and risk management professionals, including those involved in fire insurance underwriting.

Many individuals and groups need a usable treatment of the methodology required to assess the human health risks caused by toxicant exposure. This need is shared by industrial hygienists, environmental, occupational and public health professionals, toxicologists, epidemiologists, labor unions, attorneys, regulatory officials, and manufacturers and users of chemicals. The reader needs only a basic knowledge of biology adn algebra in order to utilize the methodology presented. In addition, a basic knowledge of toxicology, epidemiology, and statistics is derisrable for a full understanding of some aspects of risk assessment. Sophisticated computer programs are not required. All the computations can be carried out with a pocked calculator.