Recurrent Neural Networks For Short Term Load Forecasting

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of an effective forecasting system. Significant research has thus been devoted to the design and development of methodologies for short term load forecasting over the past decades. A class of mathematical models, called Recurrent Neural Networks, are nowadays gaining renewed interest among researchers and they are replacing many practical implementations of the forecasting systems, previously based on static methods. Despite the undeniable expressive power of these architectures, their recurrent nature complicates their understanding and poses challenges in the training procedures. Recently, new important families of recurrent architectures have emerged and their applicability in the context of load forecasting has not been investigated completely yet. This work performs a comparative study on the problem of Short-Term Load Forecast, by using different classes of state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Networks. The authors test the reviewed models first on controlled synthetic tasks and then on different real datasets, covering important practical cases of study. The text also provides a general overview of the most important architectures and defines guidelines for configuring the recurrent networks to predict real-valued time series.

This book highlights the recent research on hybrid intelligent systems and their various practical applications. It presents 34 selected papers from the 18th International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems (HIS 2019) and 9 papers from the 15th International Conference on Information Assurance and Security (IAS 2019), which was held at VIT Bhopal University, India, from December 10 to 12, 2019. A premier conference in the field of artificial intelligence, HIS - IAS 2019 brought together researchers, engineers and practitioners whose work involves intelligent systems, network security and their applications in industry. Including contributions by authors from 20 countries, the book offers a valuable reference guide for all researchers, students and practitioners in the fields of Computer Science and Engineering.

This book is part of a three volume set that constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Neural Networks, ISNN 2007, held in Nanjing, China in June 2007. Coverage includes neural networks for control applications, robotics, data mining and feature extraction, chaos and synchronization, support vector machines, fault diagnosis/detection, image/video processing, and applications of neural networks.

The advancement of sustainable energy is becoming an important concern for many countries. The traditional electrical grid supports only one-way interaction of power being delivered to the consumers. The emergence of improved sensors, actuators, and automation technologies has consequently improved the control, monitoring and communication techniques within the energy sector, including the Smart Grid system. With the support of the aforementioned modern technologies, the information flows in two-ways between the consumer and supplier. This data communication helps the supplier in overcoming challenges like integration of renewable technologies, management of energy demand, load automation and control. Renewable energy (RE) is intermittent in nature and therefore difficult to predict. The accurate RE forecasting is very essential to improve the power system operations. The forecasting models are based on complex function combinations that include seasonality, fluctuation, and dynamic nonlinearity. The advanced intelligent computing algorithms for forecasting should consider the proper parameter determinations for achieving optimization. For this we need, new generation research areas like Machine learning (ML), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enable the efficient integration of distributed and renewable generation at large scale and at all voltage levels. The modern research in the above areas will improve the efficiency, reliability and sustainability in the Smart grid.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

This book aims to make the best use of fine-grained smart meter data to process and translate them into actual information and incorporated into consumer behavior modeling and distribution system operations. It begins with an overview of recent developments in smart meter data analytics. Since data management is the basis of further smart meter data analytics and its applications, three issues on data management, i.e., data compression, anomaly detection, and data generation, are subsequently studied. The following works try to model complex consumer behavior. Specific works include load profiling, pattern recognition, personalized price design, socio-demographic information identification, and household behavior coding. On this basis, the book extends consumer behavior in spatial and temporal scale. Works such as consumer aggregation, individual load forecasting, and aggregated load forecasting are introduced. We hope this book can inspire readers to define new problems, apply novel methods, and obtain interesting results with massive smart meter data or even other monitoring data in the power systems.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Green, Pervasive, and Cloud Computing, GPC 2020, held in Xi'an, China, in November 2020. The 30 full papers presented in this book together with 8 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 96 submissions. They cover the following topics: Device-free Sensing; Machine Learning; Recommendation Systems; Urban Computing; Human Computer Interaction; Internet of Things and Edge Computing; Positioning; Applications of Computer Vision; CrowdSensing; and Cloud and Related Technologies.

Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models