Regional Economic Outlook October 2021 Asia And Pacific

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Europe Regional Economic Outlook, The European Recovery: Policy Recalibration and Sectoral Reallocation, October 2021

The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa

新冠疫情持续不退,气候变化似在加速,这两个问题依然困扰着我们的世界,也突显了全球加强合作与对话的必要性。为解决这些全球性问题,所有国家和地区都必须参与进来,而撒哈拉以南非洲尤其如此。从全世界来看,该地区目前的疫苗接种率最低,但可再生能源的前景与潜力最大,且其拥有关键的生态系统。撒哈拉以南非洲的经济预计将在2021年增长3.7%,在2022年增长3.8%。相比2020年的大幅收缩,这将是显著的改善,但与其他地区相比,撒哈拉以南非洲的复苏步伐仍是最慢的。特别是,经济前景在三个层面上出现分化:撒哈拉以南非洲与其他地区之间出现分化,撒哈拉以南非洲内部出现分化,以及各国内部出现分化。这些分化趋势反映了以下几个因素,即该地区疫苗推广步伐更慢,财政空间更为有限,以及该地区各国在经济韧性上的差异。前景依然极不确定,风险偏向下行。特别是,该地区的复苏进程取决于全球疫情走势、地区疫苗接种工作进展、食品价格通胀等因素,同时也极易受到全球经济活动和金融市场扰动的影响。展望未来,撒哈拉以南非洲的发展潜力仍未被削弱。该地区正处在一个重要关头,应大刀阔斧地推动重大改革,充分利用其发展潜力。

Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.

A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.