Reliability Modeling The Riac Guide To Reliability Prediction Assessment And Estimation

The intent of this book is to provide guidance on modeling techniques that can be used to quantify the reliability of a product or system. In this context, reliability modeling is the process of constructing a mathematical model that is used to estimate the reliability characteristics of a product. There are many ways in which this can be accomplished, depending on the product or system and the type of information that is available, or practical to obtain. This book reviews possible approaches, summarizes their advantages and disadvantages, and provides guidance on selecting a methodology based on the specific goals and constraints of the analyst. While this book will not discuss the use of specific published methodologies, in cases where examples are provided, tools and methodologies with which the author has personal experience in their development are used, such as life modeling, NPRD, MIL-HDBK-217 and the RIAC 217Plus--Introduction.

217Plus is a methodology and a software tool that was developed by the RIAC to aid in the assessment of system reliability. It represents the next generation of the PRISM software tool initially released in 1999. The original software contained six embedded models to estimate the failure rate of various components when exposed to a specific set of stresses that are defined by the user. The 217Plus contains twelve embedded component models. Until the release of this handbook, the equations comprising the component reliability prediction models were not available in printed form. As such, a user of the old software tool could not see the exact equations that comprised the models. It is always advantageous for analysts to be able to review details of the models, so that reliability prediction results can be better interpreted and supported through mutual practitioner, management and customer understanding. The RIAC, therefore, developed and published this handbook to make available the equations and model parameters that form the basis of the 217Plus methodology.

Historically, the reliability growth process has been thought of, and treated as, a reactive approach to growing reliability based on failures "discovered" during testing or, most unfortunately, once a system/product has been delivered to a customer. As a result, many reliability growth models are predicated on starting the reliability growth process at test time "zero", with some initial level of reliability (usually in the context of a time-based measure such as Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF)). Time "zero" represents the start of testing, and the initial reliability of the test item is based on its inherent design. The problem with this approach, still predominant today, is that it ignores opportunities to grow reliability during the design of a system or product, i.e., opportunities to go into reliability growth testing with a higher initial inherent reliability at time zero. In addition to the traditional approaches to reliability growth during test, this book explores the activities and opportunities that can be leveraged to promote and achieve reliability growth during the design phase of the overall system life cycle. The ability to do so as part of an integrated, proactive design environment has significant implications for developing and delivering reliable items quickly, on time and within budget. This book offers new definitions of how failures can be characterized, and how those new definitions can be used to develop metrics that will quantify how effective a Design for Reliability (DFR) process is in (1) identifying failure modes and (2) mitigating their root failure causes. Reliability growth can only occur in the presence of both elements.

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018. The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk management Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.

This book provides an application-oriented framework for reliability modeling and analysis of repairable systems in conjunction with the procurement process of weapon systems and throughput analysis for industries. Most of the reliability literature is directed towards non-repairable systems, that is, systems that fail are discarded or replaced. This book is mainly dedicated towards providing coverage to the reliability modeling and analysis of repairable systems that undergo failure-repair cycles. This unique book provides a comprehensive framework for the modeling and analysis of repairable systems considering both the non-parametric and parametric approaches to deal with their failure data. The book presents MCF based non-parametric approach with several illustrative examples and the generalized renewal process (GRP) based arithmetic reduction of age (ARA) models along with its applications to the systems failure data from the aviation industry. A complete chapter on an integrated framework for procurement process is devoted by utilizing the concepts of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques which will of a great assistance to the readers in enhancing the potential of their respective organizations. This book also presents FMEA methods tailored for GRP based repairs. This text has primarily emerged from the industrial experience and research work of the authors. A number of illustrations have been included to make the subject lucid and vivid even to the readers who are relatively new to this area. Besides, various examples have been provided to display the applicability of presented models and methodologies to assist the readers in applying the concepts presented in this book.

Major changes in gas turbine design, especially in the design and complexity of engine control systems, have led to the need for an up to date, systems-oriented treatment of gas turbine propulsion. Pulling together all of the systems and subsystems associated with gas turbine engines in aircraft and marine applications, Gas Turbine Propulsion Systems discusses the latest developments in the field. Chapters include aircraft engine systems functional overview, marine propulsion systems, fuel control and power management systems, engine lubrication and scavenging systems, nacelle and ancillary systems, engine certification, unique engine systems and future developments in gas turbine propulsion systems. The authors also present examples of specific engines and applications. Written from a wholly practical perspective by two authors with long careers in the gas turbine & fuel systems industries, Gas Turbine Propulsion Systems provides an excellent resource for project and program managers in the gas turbine engine community, the aircraft OEM community, and tier 1 equipment suppliers in Europe and the United States. It also offers a useful reference for students and researchers in aerospace engineering.