Republic Of Korea 2022 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report Staff Statement And Statement By The Executive Director For The Republic Of Korea

Korea has recovered impressively from the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a testament to its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ able policy responses. Activity has surpassed pre-covid levels despite multiple COVID waves. The recovery was supported by the effective containment of the pandemic, including rapid vaccination in 2021, and pursuing proactive economic policy support, which helped minimize economic scarring, sustain income growth, and maintain financial stability. Given Korea’s high global integration, strong external demand also supported the recovery. The upcoming presidential election offers a window of opportunity to reinvigorate structural reforms.

Korea’s economy has strong fundamentals, but is facing cyclical and structural headwinds. Growth is projected to moderate to around 2.6 percent in 2019, reflecting weaker export growth and investment. Internal demand will be supported by fiscal policy. The output gap is negative and inflation pressures are weak. The current account surplus narrowed, but is expected to remain elevated in 2019. Potential growth will continue its decline, and polarization and inequality are concerns. Labor and product market duality persist. The government is focusing on supporting income, creating jobs, and promoting innovation.

Korea faced challenges from inflation, growth slowdown, and financial stress in the wake of the pandemic. Growth started to slow in mid-2022 as global demand for electronics waned and domestic demand weakened but has begun to gradually recover in recent quarters. Headline inflation has declined from last year’s peak, though core inflation has remained more persistent. Pockets of financial vulnerability have emerged, but swift policy measures have helped to stabilize financial and housing markets. Despite having increased, systemic financial risks appear to remain manageable.

Korea entered the COVID-19 pandemic with sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a resilient financial system. The initial outbreak led to a sharp decline in economic activity and employment and generated substantial economic slack. With the help of an effective COVID-19 containment strategy and comprehensive economic policy response, the overall impact was smaller than in peers, with real GDP growth in 2020 of -1.0 percent. The economy is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2021, albeit at varying speeds across sectors, and with a high degree of uncertainty centered on the speed of normalization in the COVID situation. Public debt has risen and deficits have widened but remain at manageable levels. Credit continues to grow rapidly, financial markets have normalized quickly, and the financial sector has remained relatively sound to date despite the pandemic. The authorities are pursuing greener and more digital growth, along with a stronger social safety net, through the Korean New Deal.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Republic of Korea’s near-term outlook is improving. After slowing in the second half of 2016, growth has picked up in 2017, while recent geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact. The rebound was led by a strong expansion in investment, especially in the information technology and construction sectors. Export growth strengthened thanks to improving external conditions and high global demand for semiconductors. Private consumption growth picked up, but remains below economic growth. Recovery has been supported by an accommodative monetary policy, with lending rates and long-term yields close to record lows.

The swift and decisive policy response of Korea has contributed to an impressive economic recovery from the financial turmoil. Executive Directors welcomed the well-calibrated and gradual exit strategy while aiming to achieve strong and sustainable long-term economic growth. Directors welcomed the National Fiscal Management Plan (NFMP) and the National Debt Management Plan (NDMP). They encouraged the authorities to introduce bolder reforms to raise productivity in the nontaxable sector and also to establish Food Safety System Certification (FSSC). They suggested that increased labor market flexibility and social protection would also help facilitate the rebalancing of the economy.

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that like other open economies, Korea was hard hit by the global financial crisis during the last quarter of 2008. The authorities responded with a timely and comprehensive set of financial market and macrostabilization measures. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their speedy and comprehensive measures, which have successfully stabilized the economy and the financial system. Directors have also supported the sizable and frontloaded fiscal stimulus package and the intention to maintain fiscal stimulus in 2010 given the uncertain outlook.

Greece has weathered the pandemic well, with a considerably stronger-than-expected recovery. Reforms progressed in several areas, including digitalization, privatization, improving the fiscal policy mix, and bank balance sheet repair. Greece finalized its early repayment to the IMF on April 4 and is expected to graduate from the quarterly European Institutions’ Enhanced Surveillance framework on schedule by August 2022. Despite the adverse impact of the war in Ukraine, growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5 percent this year. High energy prices are expected to push up average inflation to 6.1 percent. Public debt is on a downward trajectory and rollover risks appear manageable. The external position last year was moderately weaker than that consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.