Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

Leading economists discuss post–financial crisis policy dilemmas, including the dangers of complacency in a period of relative stability. The Great Depression led to the Keynesian revolution and dramatic shifts in macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy. Similarly, the stagflation of the 1970s led to the adoption of the natural rate hypothesis and to a major reassessment of the role of macroeconomic policy. Should the financial crisis and the Great Recession lead to yet another major reassessment, to another intellectual revolution? Will it? If so, what form should it, or will it, take? These are the questions taken up in this book, in a series of contributions by policymakers and academics. The contributors discuss the complex role of the financial sector, the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policy, the limits of monetary policy to address financial stability, the need for fiscal policy to play a more active role in stabilization, and the relative roles of financial regulation and macroprudential tools. The general message is a warning against going back to precrisis ways—to narrow inflation targeting, little use of fiscal policy for stabilization, and insufficient financial regulation. Contributors David Aikman, Alan J. Auerbach, Ben S. Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Lael Brainard, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Marco Buti, Benoît Cœuré, Mario Draghi, Barry Eichengreen, Jason Furman, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrew G. Haldane, Philipp Hildebrand, Marc Hinterschweiger, Sujit Kapadia, Nellie Liang, Adam S. Posen, Raghuram Rajan, Valerie Ramey, Carmen Reinhart, Dani Rodrik, Robert E. Rubin, Jay C. Shambaugh, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Jeremy C. Stein, Lawrence H. Summers

Examine what would happen if we were to deploy blockchain technology at the sovereign level and use it to create a decentralized cashless economy. This book explains how finance and economics work today, and how the convergence of various technologies related to the financial sector can help us find solutions to problems, such as excessive debt creation, banks getting too big to fail, and shadow banking. The Blockchain Alternative offers sensible corrections to outdated and incorrect dogmas, such as the efficient markets hypothesis and rational expectations theory. You’ll also be introduced to universal basic income, the consequences of going cashless, why complexity economics needs to be understood and what kinds of tools and theories you'll need to redefine the existing definition of capitalism. While the book does discuss technologies and methods that are primed for our future, a number of references are made to economic history and the works of great thinkers from a different era. You’ll see how the blockchain can be used to deploy solutions that were devised in the past, but which can serve as the antidote to our current economic malaises. You'll discover that what is required today is not an adaptation of the old theories, but a new methodology that is suited to this new era. Without undertaking such an endeavor, one will always be burdened with a definition of capitalism that is out of kilter with the evolution of our digital humanity. What would this mean to monetary and fiscal policy, market structure and our current understanding of economics? More importantly would we need to change our current understanding of capitalism? And if we were to change our perceptions, what would the future version look like? This book answers these questions, and analyses some of the most pertinent issues of our generation. What You’ll Learn Examine fractional banking, debt, and the financialization of assets Gain a firm understanding of the “too big to fail” theory, smart contracts, and Fintech Review economics and agent-based modelling Use the blockchain and complexity economics to rethink economics and capitalistic systems Who This Book Is For The primary audience is bankers and other finance professionals, policy makers, and students of finance and economics. The secondary audience is anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the current financial system, the blockchain, and the future of capitalism. Praise for The Blockchain Alternative “...a bold and pioneering effort to make sense of how emerging digital technologies might be used to reshape public policies, including macroeconomic and social policies, in basic ways. Everyone interested in this very important emerging question should read this book." - Dr. Sanjay G. Reddy, Associate Professor of Economics at The New School for Social Research and Research Associate of the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University. “Writing on blockchain today is analogous to writing about the internet, before it became massively distributed. The book pushes us to think about the quantum leap that this technology may infer to our capitalist model, if scaled at the pace described by the book. Written with the support of strong empirical models but also with an open mind towards the future, this is a must read for anyone interested in becoming part of the new economic infrastructure” - Dr. Mark Esposito, Harvard University’s Division of Continuing Education & Judge Business School, University of Cambridge “With a rigorously balanced dosage of versatility and rationale we are allured into a multifaceted trajectory across ingrained yet functionally arcane economic models, only to plunge into a conceptually revolutionary realm which irreversibly stimulates us into envisaging a fascinating novel scheme of world order”. - Ioana Surpateanu, Political Adviser to the European Parliament “If there is only one book that I am reading on how blockchain is going to change our lives, it will have to be "The Blockchain Alternative." - Dr. Terence Tse, Associate Professor of Finance, ESCP Europe Business School

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, we identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the pre-crisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.

Top economists consider how to conduct policy in a world where previous beliefs have been shattered by the recent financial and economic crises. Since 2008, economic policymakers and researchers have occupied a brave new economic world. Previous consensuses have been upended, former assumptions have been cast into doubt, and new approaches have yet to stand the test of time. Policymakers have been forced to improvise and researchers to rethink basic theory. George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate and one of this volume's editors, compares the crisis to a cat stuck in a tree, afraid to move. In April 2013, the International Monetary Fund brought together leading economists and economic policymakers to discuss the slowly emerging contours of the macroeconomic future. This book offers their combined insights. The editors and contributors—who include the Nobel Laureate and bestselling author Joseph Stiglitz, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen, and the former Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer—consider the lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. They discuss, among other things, post-crisis questions about the traditional policy focus on inflation; macroprudential tools (which focus on the stability of the entire financial system rather than of individual firms) and their effectiveness; fiscal stimulus, public debt, and fiscal consolidation; and exchange rate arrangements.

This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associated with increased public debt; and the policy potential, risks, and institutional challenges associated with new macroprudential measures. Rationale: The note contributes to the ongoing debate on several aspects of macroeconomic policy. It follows up on the earlier “Rethinking” paper, refining the analysis in light of the events of the past two years. Given the relatively fluid state of the debate (e.g., recent challenges to central bank independence), it is useful to highlight that while many of the tenets of the pre-crisis consensus have been challenged, others (such as the desirability of central bank independence) remain valid.

Macroeconomics has always played host to contesting schools of thought, but recent events have exacerbated those differences. To fully understand the subject, students need to be aware of these controversies. Rethinking Macroeconomics: A History of Economic Thought Perspective introduces students to the key schools of thought, equipping them with the knowledge needed for a true understanding of today’s economy. The text guides the reader through multiple approaches to macroeconomic analysis before presenting the data for several critical economic episodes, all in order to explore which analytical method provides the best explanation for each event. It covers key background information on topics such as the basics of supply and demand, macroeconomic data, international trade and the balance of payments, the creation of the money supply, and the global financial crisis. This anticipated second edition contains new chapters on Modern Monetary Theory, the Japanese economy, the European Union, and the COVID-19 crisis, bringing the story up to date and broadening the international coverage. Offering the context that is missing from existing introductory textbooks, this work encourages students to think critically about received economic wisdom. This is the ideal complement to any introductory macroeconomics textbook and is ideally suited for undergraduate students who have completed a principles of economics course. The book is fully supported with additional online resources, which include lecture slides and an instructor manual.

"The last decade has seen a lively debate in macroeconomics, with an increasing criticism on the model that seemed to be dominant in literature since the end of the 1990's, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE, hereafter) and, consequently, the birth of some new theoretical approaches and methodologies"--

The contributors to this edited volume explore the effects of various development strategies and associated macroeconomic policies on women’s well-being and progress towards gender equality. Detailed analyses of major UN reports on gender reveal the different approaches to assessing absolute and relative progress for women and the need to take into account the specifics of policy regimes when making such assessments. The book argues that neoliberal policies, especially the liberalization of trade and investment, make it difficult to close gender wage and earnings gaps, and new gender sensitive policies need to be devised. These and other issues are all examined in more detail in several gendered development histories of countries from Latin America and Asia.