Review Of Fund Work On Trade

The Fund has responded to a number of recent challenges facing its members by stepping up its work on trade. The Fund’s trade agenda has been shaped by both Executive Board guidance and demands on missions. The present report assesses the Fund’s priorities in the trade area, takes stock of its work, and reviews the Fund’s collaboration and division of labor with other institutions.

This review follows the Board-endorsed recommendation by the IEO in 2009 to have an assessment of the Fund’s work on trade every five years. In addition to reviewing past work, this paper discusses key issues going forward towards a future trade agenda for the next five years. This reflects the need to operationalize the implications of the changing trade landscape, including the changing drivers of trade—such as global value chains (GVCs)—and the movement of the fulcrum of trade policy from multilateral rounds to regional and plurilateral deals.

This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.

This paper examines the construction of the index and its use over the past seven years, identifies its limitations, examines several alternative measures of trade policy, and highlights some options for improving the Fund’s use of trade policy indicators.

This paper reviews the characteristics of international trade in services and of the World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) framework, which was established to regulate it. Further liberalization of services trade in developing countries, as currently envisaged in the context of the WTO Doha Development Agenda, holds a number of potential benefits, such as underpinning the liberalization of goods trade, but it is also being resisted due to its potential adjustment costs. Two implications for IMF activities are examined: coherence among the three principal international economic institutions and sequencing with macroeconomic stabilization and regulatory reforms.

This Reference Note introduces guidance on preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In so doing, it responds to the request by the Executive Board in the context of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Evaluation of IMF Involvement in Trade Policy Issues. Section II provides context for the Fund’s work on trade policy, drawing upon the 2009 IEO Evaluation, the 2005 Review of Fund Work on Trade, and the discussion of the Executive Board on these occasions. Section III reflects issues presented in Preferential Trade Agreements—Issues for the Fund, discussed at an informal Board seminar in December 2006.

This paper surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and inclusive growth. It examines claims that the rise in inequality in many countries can be attributed to the concurrent rise in trade competition, especially from EMEs like China, spurring trade tensions and protectionist measures. The paper investigates the conflicting literature showing the aggregate benefits of trade versus the adverse and persistent impact of trade, especially import competition, on specific industries and local communities. The paper then reviews the evidence for using trade policies and other complementary policies for adjustment and compensation to those groups adversely affected by trade.

NULL