Saving Investment And Growth In Developing Countries

The gradual acceleration of growth in developing countries is a defining feature of the past two decades. This acceleration came with major shifts in patterns of investment, saving, and capital flows. This second volume in the Global Development Horizons series analyzes these shifts and explores how they may evolve through 2030. Average domestic saving in developing countries stood at 34 percent of their GDP in 2010, up from 24 percent in 1990, while their investment was around 33 percent of their GDP in 2012, up from 26 percent. These trends in saving and investment, along with higher growth rates in developing countries, have resulted in developing countries’ share of global savings now standing at 46 percent, nearly double the level of the 1990s. The presence of developing countries on the global stage will continue to expand over the next two decades. Analysis in this report projects that by 2030, China will account for 30 percent of global investment activity, far and away the largest share of any single country, while India and Brazil (at 7 percent and 3 percent) will account for shares comparable to those of the United States and Japan (11 percent and 5 percent). The complex interaction among aging, growth, and financial deepening can be expected to result in a world where developing countries will contribute 62 of every 100 dollars of world saving in 2030, up from 45 dollars in 2010, and where they account for between $6.2 trillion and $13 trillion of global gross capital flows, rising from $1.3 trillion in 2010. Trends in investment, saving, and capital flows through 2030 will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national policy makers but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Policymakers preparing for this change will benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future. This book is accompanied by a website, http://www.worldbank.org/CapitalForTheFuture, that includes a host of related electronic resources: data sets underlying the two main scenarios presented in the report, background papers, technical appendixes, interactive widgets with variations to some of the assumptions used in the projections, and related audio and video resources.

This Work Examines Economic Policies Prevailing In India Since Independence. The Determinants, Trends, And Patterns Of Investment And Saving In India And The Role Of Policies In Mediating The Relationship Between Investment And Growth Rates Are Analyzed.

Variations in growth perf ...

The growing disparity between the developed and the developing countries has once again rekindled the debate about the relative merits of foreign investment as means whereby the developed countries can help the devel oping countries in both achieving a reasonable rate of growth and also from preventing the widening gap between the North and the South from widening even further. This renewed interest in the debate was most sharply highlighted at the recently concluded North-South economic summit conference at Cancun, Mexico. There, the United States took the position that massive increases in foreign aid were neither practical nor the best means of ensuring continuing and satisfactory growth in the developing countries. Rather the solution was to be found in depending on a free market economy and on inflows of private foreign investment. Behind these views, of course lie the more fundamental questions: for example, what should be the role of multinational corporations in the developing countries since they constitute the main source of foreign private investment? Should there be greater cooperation between the public sectors of the North and the South? What is the best means of bridging the economic gap between the North and the South: through direct transfers of wealth from the North to the South or through raising South's growth rates via the transfer of technology and the inflow of investment by multinationals? These questions are of fundamental importance and have wide ranging implications, not only for the economic

"One of the controversies in growth analysis is the relative role of capital accumulation and productivity growth in driving output growth. As we interpret the evidence, discussed in this paper, part of the controversy on the role of capital accumulation in the growth process is due to the time span of the analysis (growth transitions versus steady states/long run growth). In fact, the empirical importance of various growth determinants will depend on what we want explain: long run growth, say growth over half a century or a century as different from growth dynamics over one or two decades. New evidence is showing that growth fluctuations at frequencies of a decade or so are very important part of the growth story for many developing countries. Growth is an irregular and volatile process in which the same country may experience shifts in growth regimes that can entail growth take-off and booms, stagnation and/or growth collapses. In this context, investment and savings become important variables whose determinants and dynamics we want to understand for designing public policies affecting positively the rate of economic growth."--authors' abstract