Sea Ice Analysis And Forecasting

A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.

A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.

Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

The Second Edition of The Drift of Sea Ice presents the fundamental laws of sea ice drift which come from the material properties of sea ice and the basic laws of mechanics. The resulting system of equations is analysed for the general properties of sea ice drift, the free drift model and analytical models for ice drift in the presence of internal friction, and the construction of numerical ice drift models is detailed. This second edition of a much lauded work, unique on this topic in the English language, has been revised, updated and expanded with much new information and outlines recent results, in particular in relation to the climate problem, mathematical modelling and ice engineering applications. The current book presents the theory, observations, mathematical modelling techniques, and applications of sea ice drift science. The theory is presented from the beginning on a graduate student level, so that students and researchers coming from other fields such as physical oceanography, meteorology, physics, engineering, environmental sciences or geography can use the book as a source book or self-study material. First the drift ice material is presented ending with the concept of ‘ice state’ – the relevant properties in sea ice dynamics. Ice kinematics observations are widely presented with the mathematical analysis methods, and thereafter come drift ice rheology – to close the triangle material – kinematics – stress. The momentum equation of sea ice is derived in detail and its general properties are carefully analysed. Then follow two chapters on analytical models: free drift and drift in the presence of internal friction: These are very important tools in understanding the dynamical behaviour of sea ice. The last topical chapter is numerical models, which are the modern tool to solve ice dynamics problem in short term and long term problems. The closing chapter summarises sea ice dynamics applications and the need of sea ice dynamic knowledge and gives some final remarks on the future of this branch of science.

Procedures for preparing short-range (48-hour) forecasts and long-range (15- and 30-day) estimates of austral summer sea ice conditions in the western Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound are given. Magnitude and direction of short-period ice drift are related to pack concentration, topography, and thickness, surface currents, and forecasted surface wind velocities. Long-period ice estimates are based on analog techniques relating various environmental factors to pack growth, extent, and disintegration as well as using the progression of ice melt indicated by selected historical data. Examples of short-range ice forecasts and long-range estimates are given. Techniques are included for interpreting sea ice from satellite imagery.

This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.