Seasonal Flood Forecasts And Warning Response Opportunities

This book explores the feasibility of using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts and early warning systems to prevent losses from floods and droughts in Bangladesh. Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is due to short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts—the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh— and disseminate these products through appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecasts, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. Therefore, the primary objective of the book is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The book discusses issues related to the 5-stage Flood Forecasts, Warning, and Response System (FFWRS) and emphasizes the role of the seasonal ‘Climate Outlook Forum (COF)’ in Bangladesh. The book also identifies ways to improve forecasting and early warning systems by utilizing ENSO-based climate data and models, and discusses a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh. Several successful case examples of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts and early warning systems from other ENSO-sensitive regions have been documented. The primary audience includes academics and students, government policymakers, engineers, and business leaders.

Recent flood events in Europe, the USA and elsewhere have shown the devastating impact that flooding can have on people and property. Flood warning and forecasting systems provide a well-established way to help to reduce the effects of flooding by allowing people to be evacuated from areas at risk, and for measures to be taken to reduce damage to property. With sufficient warning, temporary defences (sandbags, flood gates etc) can also be installed, and river control structures operated to mitigate the effects of flooding. Many countries and local authorities now operate some form of flood warning system, and the underlying technology requires knowledge across a range of technical areas, including rainfall and tidal detection systems, river and coastal flood forecasting models, flood warning dissemination systems, and emergency response procedures. This book provides a comprehensive account of the flood forecasting, warning and emergency response process, including techniques for predicting the development of flood events, and for issuing appropriate warnings. Related topics, such as telemetry and information systems, and flood warning economics, are also discussed. For perhaps the first time, this book brings together in a single volume the many strands of this interesting multidisciplinary topic, and will serve as a reference for researchers, policy makers and engineers. The material on meteorological, hydrological and coastal modelling and monitoring may also be of interest to a wider audience.

This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2e, provides an integrated look at the major disasters that have had, and continue to have, major implications for many of the world’s people, such as floods and droughts. This new edition takes a geoscientific approach to the topic, while also covering current thinking about some scientific issues that are socially relevant and can directly affect human lives and assets. This new edition showcases both academic and applied research conducted in developed and developing countries, allowing readers to see the most updated flood and drought modeling research and their applications in the real world, including for humanitarian emergency purposes. Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2e, also contains new insights about how climate change affects hazardous processes. For the first time, information on the many diverse topics relevant to professionals is aggregated into one volume. It is a valuable reference to researchers, graduates, scientists, physical geographers, urban planners, landscape architects, and other people who work on the build environments of the world. Cutting-edge discussion of natural hazard topics that affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people worldwide Includes numerous full-color tables, GIS maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs of hazardous process in action Provides case studies of prominent hydro-meteorological hazards and disasters

The aim of this book is to contribute to understanding risk knowledge and to forecasting components of early flood warning, particularly in the environment of tropical high mountains in developing cities. This research covers a challenge, taking into account the persistent lack of data, limited resources and often complex climatic, hydrologic and hydraulic conditions. In this research, a regional method is proposed for assessing flash flood susceptibility and for identifying debris flow predisposition at the watershed scale. An indication of hazard is obtained from the flash flood susceptibility analysis and continually, the vulnerability and an indication of flood risk at watershed scale was obtained. Based on risk analyses, the research follows the modelling steps for flood forecasting development. Input precipitation is addressed in the environment of complex topography commonly found in mountainous tropical areas. A distributed model, a semi-distributed model and a lumped model were all used to simulate the discharges of a tropical high mountain basin with a pramo upper basin. Performance analysis and diagnostics were carried out in order to identify the most appropriate model for the study area for flood early warning. Finally, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to explore the added value of numerical weather models for flood early warning in a pramo area.

Flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world. Available records suggest that both flood frequency and severity are on the rise and this is likely to worsen in the context of climate change. As population, infrastructure and poverty grow rapidly in developing countries, particularly in urban agglomerations of 10 million people or more, floods could cause widespread devastation, economic damage and loss of life. Assessment of vulnerability and risk from naturally occurring phenomena is therefore imperative in order to achieve urban sustainability. This book uses geospatial techniques to evaluate hazards, risk and vulnerability at a metropolitan scale in a data-scarce country. An empirical study was performed using remote sensing, GIS and census data. This research offers a new approach to mapping population, infrastructures and communities at risk which can greatly contribute to the deeper understanding of flood disasters in a rapidly expanding megacity. Examples shown in this book are from Dhaka Megacity, however, the techniques and methods can easily be implemented in medium to large cities of similar characteristics. The book is essential reading for hazard researchers, geospatial scientists, disaster management professionals, geographers, urban planners, and social scientists. Ashraf M. Dewan is currently a Lecturer in the Department of Spatial Sciences at Curtin University, Western Australia (on leave from his substantive position as Associate Professor in the Geography & Environment Department at the University of Dhaka, Bangladesh).