Security Implications Of The Proliferation Of Weapons Of Mass Destruction In The Middle East

This monograph addresses the important question of the security implications for the nations of the region of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer the monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important issue. The author offers a unique perspective based on extensive interviews that he conducted in the region, and makes specific policy recommendations for U.S. military and civilian decisionmakers.

The author argues that the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Iran-Iraq rivalry, and the lack of progress in the peace process are strong incentives for nations in the region to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD). He documents Israeli, Iranian, and Arab WMD programs and capabilities, referencing use of WMD in the region. He discusses the reasons why the major regional powers seek WMD capabilities and examines the nature of the proliferation dynamic as well as nonproliferation and counterproliferation approaches applicable to the region. The author offers several recommendations designed to strengthen these efforts and deal more effectively with causes of proliferation.

The Middle East is an international flashpoint, a place where open warfare could erupt at any time. It is the home of numerous countries possessing some combination of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons), and is an area where states are developing an increasing capability to deliver such WMD by missiles and/or aircraft. The Middle East is also the home of US friends who oppose each other as well as rogue states who are hostile to the United States. In short, the Middle East is a WMD war waiting to happen. Such a conflict would harm US allies and US interests; it needs to be avoided. Or, if WMD warfare occurs, such a conflict needs to be limited and the United States and allied forces need to be prepared to cope with the effects. The authors of this study address important questions that demand an answer if US national security policy is to be well informed.

The ten authors of the essays in this study examine issues that the US must address if its national security policy in the Middle East is to be well informed. In "NBC and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East," Lawrence Scheinman summarizes the nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons capabilities and missile systems of Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Syria. Scheinman argues that that stability in the region is best served by universal adherence to treaties to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Anthony R. Cordesman, in his essay "Recent Developments in the Persian Gulf," looks at both the conventional and WMD military balance between the states in the region.

The Middle East is an international flashpoint, a place where open warfare could erupt at any time. It is the home of numerous countries possessing some combination of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons), and is an area where states are developing an increasing capability to deliver such WMD by missiles and/or aircraft. The Middle East is also the home of US friends who oppose each other as well as rogue states who are hostile to the United States. In short, the Middle East is a WMD war waiting to happen. Such a conflict would harm US allies and US interests; it needs to be avoided. Or, if WMD warfare occurs, such a conflict needs to be limited and the United States and allied forces need to be prepared to cope with the effects. The authors of this study address important questions that demand an answer if US national security policy is to be well informed. In chapter 1, "NBC and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East," Dr. Lawrence Scheinman, director of the Washington, D.C., office of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, summarizes the nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons capabilities and missile systems of Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Syria. He sees the region as one of the most tension-ridden, conflict-prone and heavily armed regions of the world. He addresses the questions of what the various state players have, why they have it, and what this implies for the stability of the region. He notes that WMD has already been used repeatedly in the region. For example, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Iran have used chemical weapons against their adversaries. Iran and Iraq from 1980-88 engaged in the first two-way ballistic missile war in history. As the range of delivery systems increases, and as warheads are loaded with more lethal payloads, the situation will become more threatening should warfare be renewed in the region. Scheinman argues that while the United States and its allies need an effective deterrent and defense capability (counterproliferation), he believes that stability is best served by universal adherence to, and compliance with treaties to prevent the proliferation of WMD. 1 NBC and Missile Proliferation Issues in the Middle East * 2 Recent Military Developments in the Persian Gulf * 3 Arab Perspectives on Middle Eastern Security * 4 Regional Security and Arms Control in the Middle East: The Nuclear Dimension * 5 The Egyptian-Israeli Confrontation over the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

This report identifies several important trends that are shaping regional security. It examines traditional security concerns, such as energy security and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as newer challenges posed by political reform, economic reform, civil-military relations, leadership change, and the information revolution. The report concludes by identifying the implications of these trends for U.S. foreign policy.