Seismogenesis And Earthquake Forecasting The Frank Evison Volume I

This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.

This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is one of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. A biography of Frank Evison and a list of his publications is included, as well as review papers and new research papers in the field. The volume includes papers related to Frank's most abiding interest of precursory earthquake swarms. The research contributions cover a range of current forecasting methods such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock model, the Every Earthquake a precursor According to Scale model, Pattern Informatics, Reverse Tracing of Precursors, stochastic models of elastic rebound, and methods for handling multiple precursors. The methods considered employ a variety of statistical approaches to using previous seismicity to forecast future earthquakes, including regional and global earthquake likelihood models and alarm-type forecasts. The forecast time-frames of interest range from the short time-frame associated with clustering of aftershocks to the long time-frame associated with recurrence of major earthquakes. A recurring theme is the assessment of forecasting performance, whether by likelihood scores, skill scores, error diagrams, or relative operating characteristic tests. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.

The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.

Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters presents the latest scientific developments and reviews of research addressing seismic hazard and seismic risk, including causality rates, impacts on society, preparedness, insurance and mitigation. The current controversies in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction are addressed from different points of view. Basic tools for understanding the seismic risk and to reduce it, like paleoseismology, remote sensing, and engineering are discussed. Contains contributions from expert seismologists, geologists, engineers and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board Presents the latest research on seismic hazard and risk assessment, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation Includes numerous illustrations, maps, diagrams and tables addressing earthquake risk reduction Features new insights and reviews of earthquake prediction, forecasting and early warning, as well as basic tools to deal with earthquake risk

This book presents select proceedings of the 17th Symposium on Earthquake Engineering organized by the Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee. The topics covered in the proceedings include engineering seismology and seismotectonics, earthquake hazard assessment, seismic microzonation and urban planning, dynamic properties of soils and ground response, ground improvement techniques for seismic hazards, computational soil dynamics, dynamic soil–structure interaction, codal provisions on earthquake-resistant design, seismic evaluation and retrofitting of structures, earthquake disaster mitigation and management, and many more. This book also discusses relevant issues related to earthquakes, such as human response and socioeconomic matters, post-earthquake rehabilitation, earthquake engineering education, public awareness, participation and enforcement of building safety laws, and earthquake prediction and early warning system. This book is a valuable reference for researchers and professionals working in the area of earthquake engineering.

Discrete Fracture Network Modeling of Hydraulic Stimulation describes the development and testing of a model that couples fluid-flow, deformation, friction weakening, and permeability evolution in large, complex two-dimensional discrete fracture networks. The model can be used to explore the behavior of hydraulic stimulation in settings where matrix permeability is low and preexisting fractures play an important role, such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems and gas shale. Used also to describe pure shear stimulation, mixed-mechanism stimulation, or pure opening-mode stimulation. A variety of novel techniques to ensure efficiency and realistic model behavior are implemented, and tested. The simulation methodology can also be used as an efficient method for directly solving quasistatic fracture contact problems. Results show how stresses induced by fracture deformation during stimulation directly impact the mechanism of propagation and the resulting fracture network.

These proceedings contain a selection of peer-reviewed papers presented at the International Symposium on Geodesy for Earthquake and Natural Hazards (GENAH), Matsushima, Japan, 22-26 July, 2014. The scientific sessions focused on monitoring temporal and spatial changes in Earth's lithosphere and atmosphere using geodetic satellite systems, high rate GNSS as well as high resolution imaging (InSAR, Lidar). Researchers in various fields of geodesy discussed the role of geodesy in disaster mitigation and how groups with different techniques can collaborate toward such a goal.