Solving For Project Risk Management Understanding The Critical Role Of Uncertainty In Project Management

Risk is real—but you can manage it with this hard-hitting guide to reducing risk on any project, in any industry All projects, large and small, are subject to various risks. But the failure to manage inherent risk with diligence and know-how can lead to devastating consequences for an organization. In this comprehensive hands-on guide, a renowned expert in the field provides everything organizations need to conduct project risk management the right way. Why do so many projects come in over schedule and over budget? How do projected expenditures and schedules line up with reality? How can you accurately assess risk to mitigate financial disaster? Through a methodical, statistics-based approach, Christian B. Smart reveals: The enduring problem of cost and schedule growth How rigorous project risk management can reduce the impact of uncertainty The systematic tendency to underestimate risk—and how to avoid it Ways to accurately assess confidence levels in project risk management The need for proper risk management at the portfolio level The author lays out common problems and explains how to effectively solve them. And while he employs a wealth of illustrative charts, graphs, and statistics, he presents the material in an accessible style, and peppers the text with powerful personal anecdotes. Ideal for project managers, business analysts, and senior decision makers in both the public and private sectors, Solving for Project Risk Management offers everything you need to ensure your projects run smoothly, on budget, and deliver the expected outcomes.

Risk is a key consideration for project managers in any area of endeavour. The authors show how, using a general methodology, to take a systematic approach to managing risk to increase overall project management efficiency.

Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enlightening new perspective. —Professor Tony M. Ridley Imperial College London, Past President, Institution of Civil Engineers Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward continue to educate the profession with this masterful exposition of the differences between, and the potentials for combinations of, risk, uncertainty and opportunity. Particularly welcome is the way they integrate this trio into the project lifecycle – the bedrock of project management control and organization. —Peter W.G. Morris Head of School and Professor of Construction and Project Management University College London Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward’s books on Project Risk Management have been an essential part of my repertoire for twenty years, and they are top of my recommended reading for the courses I do on that subject. In this book they have enhanced their previous work to focus on uncertainty management and emphasise more strongly opportunities for improving project performance, rather then just identifying what can go wrong. A structured process is an essential part of managing project uncertainty, and their process is one of the most powerful. This book will be added to my repertoire. —Rodney Turner Professor of Project Management, SKEMA Business School Lille A profoundly important book. With How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward take a good thing and make it better. Members of the project management profession have been influenced for years by their insights into project risk management. With this latest instalment the authors demonstrate that risk and uncertainty needn’t be dreaded; in fact, the reverse side of the ‘risk coin’ has always been opportunity. My sincere appreciation to Chapman and Ward for turning this particular coin over and showing readers, academic and practitioner alike, the opportunity embedded in managing projects. —Jeffrey K. Pinto Andrew Morrow and Elizabeth Lee Black Chair in Management of Technology Sam and Irene Black School of Business, Penn State Erie

The second edition of the Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide maintains the flavour of the original and the qualities that made the first edition so successful. The new edition includes: The latest practices and approaches to risk management in projects; Coverage of project risk in its broadest sense, as well as individual risk events; The use of risk management to address opportunities (uncertain events with a positive effect on the project's objectives); A comprehensive description of the tools and techniques required; New material on the human factors, organisational issues and the requirements of corporate governance; New chapters on the benefits and also behavioural issues

Seminar paper from the year 2006 in the subject Business economics - Operations Research, grade: 1,7, University of Paderborn (Department of Business Information Systems ), course: Advanced Information Technolgy in Business, language: English, abstract: In consequence of the steadily increasing demand for projects there is an increasing demand for project risk management. Due to the high complexity of project work and its planning there are many possibilities where risks can endanger the success or even the practicability of a certain project. Hence, there cannot be enough emphasis on project risk planning for the smoothly flow of project progression. Within projects the term risk is defined as “[...] the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain occurrences adversely affecting project objectives” (Wideman 1992, p. I-4). The thorough examination of possibilities for avoidance, elimination or at least for a significant reduction of these risks should lead to a better performance of the ultimate project. The question why some projects succeed while others fail is important to every business. To strengthen the possible future project success, project risk management has to be effectively applied to every project process. Identifying project risks and appropriately cope with them through the development of adequate strategies is the aim of the project risk management process. Having this in mind, the intention of this term paper is to analyze the process of project risk management. After a short introduction, by thorough study of literature in the second chapter the main steps of different approaches of the risk management process in projects will be indicated and compared. After that the most common tools to be used within this process will be indicated before, finally, possibilities for the extension of the project risk management process towards a broader management process will be discussed. In the last chapter a conclusion will be drawn and an answer given to the questions on which are the critical steps towards an effective risk management process and which specific factors have to be focused to overcome the threats concerning management of projects. The work is done on a more general basis to understand the character of the risk management process, giving possibility to an application to many different kinds of projects.

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

A comprehensive overview of project risk management, providing guidance on implementing and improving project risk management systems in organizations This book provides a comprehensive overview of project risk management. Besides offering an easy-to-follow, yet systematic approach to project risk management, it also introduces topics which have an important bearing on how risks are managed but which are generally not found in other books, including risk knowledge management, cultural risk-shaping, project complexity, political risks, and strategic risk management. Many new concepts about risk management are introduced. Diagrams and tables, together with project examples and case studies, illustrate the authors’ precepts and ideas. Each chapter in Managing Project Risks begins with an introduction to its topic and ends with a summary. The book starts by providing an understanding and overview of risk and continues with coverage of projects and project stakeholders. Ensuing chapters look at project risk management processes, contexts and risk drivers, identification, assessment and evaluation, response and treatment options, and risk monitoring and control. One chapter focuses entirely on risk knowledge management. Others explore the cultural shaping of risk, political risk in projects, computer applications, and more. The book finishes by examining the current state and potential future of project risk management. In essence, this book: Effectively communicates a conceptual and philosophical understanding of risk Establishes the nature of projects and the stakeholders involved in them Presents a systematic and logically progressive approach to the processes of project risk management Demonstrates how to recognize the drivers of project risks and the factors which shape them Emphasizes the importance of capturing and exploiting project risk knowledge Provides guidance about implementing and building (or improving) project risk management systems in organizations Managing Project Risks will benefit practitioners and students of project management across a wide range of industries and professions.

Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.