Sovereign Risk And Belief Driven Fluctuations In The Euro Area

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

In the last twenty years, several periods of turmoil have shaped the financial and economic system. Many regulatory policies, such as Basel III, have been introduced to overcome further crises and scandals. In addition, monetary policy has experienced a transition from conventional to unconventional frameworks in most industrialized and emerging economies. For instance, turning to hedge and diversification of portfolios, commodities markets have attracted increasing interest. More recently, new forms of money have been introduced, such as virtual money. These changes have influenced governance features at both macro and micro levels. Therefore, calls for ethical and sustainable standards in financial and economic spheres have been growing since 2007.Financial and Economic Systems: Transformations and New Challenges provides readers with insights about future transformations and challenges for financial and economic systems. Prominent contributors focus on different aspects, providing a global overview of crisis implications. The book is split into four main areas: Changes in the Real Sphere, covering issues related to yields, risk, unconventional monetary policy, and macroprudential policy; Financial Markets and Macroeconomics, covering uncertainty in finance and economics; CSR, Sustainability and Ethical Finance, highlighting the emergence of corporate social responsibility; and Digitalization, Blockchain and FinTech and the consequences of these transformations on markets and economic systems.

This book focuses on the recovery and new normal in a post-Covid scenario, drawing important lessons from the pandemic and proposing new ideas for sustainable development, endogenous dynamism, and inclusive growth. The book presents different ideas and perspectives about the present and the future, reflecting on four main fields of our economic reality: macroeconomics, governments, technology, and society. It discusses important topics for future economic scenarios, beginning with an estimation of the economic consequences of the absence of an equitable distribution of vaccines. Further topics discussed include the government’s debts sustainability, the probability of an inflation/deflation or of a stagflation scenario, as well as the impact of US and European economic policies on economic growth. The book further investigates the economic costs of the pandemic, which have fallen most heavily on those least able to bear them. It examines governments subsidies, which supported people and firms through wage subsidies, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures, and discusses the question of whether more investment in health care, education, and other public services will still be needed. In a time of immense change and global challenges, this book is a must-read for scholars, researchers, and students of economics, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of economic growth, energy, environment, migration, development, digital transformation, and demography.

We analyze the long-run impact of emerging-market sovereign bond yields on corporate bond yields, finding that the average pass-through is around one. The pass-through is larger in countries with greater sovereign risks and where sovereign bonds are more liquid. It is also greater for corporate bonds with lower ratings, shorter maturities, and for those issued by financial companies and government-related firms. Our results support theoretical arguments that corporate and sovereign yields are linked together through credit risks and liquidity premiums. Consequently, high sovereign risks may slowdown growth by persistently increasing private sector borrowing costs.

Analyzes the roots of Europe's economic decline, examining institutions of the European Union and exploring possibilities for reform.

An integrated approach to the economics of sovereign default Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt—the lack of strong legal enforcement—and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to “dilute” existing creditors, and sovereign debt’s distortion of investment and growth. The book uses the tractable framework to isolate how each additional friction affects the equilibrium outcome, and illustrates its counterpart using state-of-the-art computational modeling. The novel approach presented here contrasts the outcome of a constrained efficient allocation—one chosen to maximize the joint surplus of creditors and government—with the competitive equilibrium outcome. This allows for a clear analysis of the extent to which equilibrium prices efficiently guide the government’s debt and default decisions, and of what drives divergences with the efficient outcome. Providing an integrated approach to sovereign debt and default, this incisive and authoritative book is an ideal resource for researchers and graduate students interested in this important topic.