Spillover From The Conflict In Syria

All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again, but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This report examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

A unique collaboration providing an analysis of the conflict in Syria, focusing on the integration between legal and political studies.

In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Examining the international dimensions of the Syrian conflict, this book studies external factors relating to the Uprising. It explores the involvement of outside powers and the events’ impact both on regional and international level. Syria was widely perceived to be essential to the regional power balance, hence it was a valued prize to be fought over. The book examines the impact of global and regional powers in propelling the conflict in Syria; looks at the motives and strategies of the key regional and international actors (Hizbollah, Palestinians, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, US, Russia, EU); and analyses the impact of the Syrian conflict on key relations between regional states (Turkey-Syria, Turkey-Iran, Iraq-Syria). Finally, several chapters treat the impact on Syria of international sanctions and the "Responsibility to Protect" doctrine. This book follows on to The Syrian Uprising: Domestic Origins and Early Trajectory, edited by Raymond Hinnebusch and Omar Imady (2018). Subsequent volumes will examine the later evolution of the conflict. Taking an innovative and interdisciplinary approach that seeks to capture the full complexity of the phenomenon, this book contributes significantly to our understanding of the Syrian conflict and will therefore be a valuable resource for anyone studying Middle Eastern Politics.

This book examines the unfolding of the Syrian refugee crisis in relation to the spillover of the Syrian civil war in Lebanon and against the background of Lebanon–Syria relations and Lebanon’s socio-political, cultural, legal, and economic conditions. It surveys Lebanon’s response plans to the refugee crisis as part of the development of the international response plans to address the protection and needs of the Syrian refugees and Palestinian refugees from Syria, as well as the impacted host communities and institutions. At the same time, this book emphasizes the dramatic shift in popular and institutional attitudes towards the refugees as a response to and as a growth of the sheer magnitude of the refugee crisis, which made Lebanon the only country in modern history with the highest per capita concentration of refugees in the world. By examining these attitudes against the background of achievements and failures of the response plans, the impact of the crisis on state institutions on the local and national levels, and the collective consciousness of a nation barely surviving the scars of its civil war, this book not only underscores the deepening tragedy of Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, but also the consequential tragedy of many Lebanese, who have been forced into poverty and whose livelihoods have been affected by insecurity and the almost complete collapse of social services. As a result, the tragedy of the Syrian refugee crisis has become an international crisis affecting vulnerable persons across nationalities, and, unless it is addressed diplomatically and its response plans sufficiently funded, the tragedy will only deepen across continents.

Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities.

This edited volume investigates the political and socioeconomic impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on Lebanon and Jordan, and these countries’ mechanisms to cope with the rapid influx of refugees. The sudden population increase has resulted in severe pressures on infrastructures and services, as well as growing social tensions between the refugees and host communities. These chapters use a transdisciplinary approach to analyse the repercussions of the humanitarian tragedy at three different levels: 1) the changing governmental policies of the two countries towards the crisis; 2) the different perceptions of the Jordanian and Lebanese local communities on the Syrian refugees; and 3) the role played by NGOs and the civil society in both countries in dealing with protracted humanitarian emergencies.