Staff Papers

This paper examines how the effects of fiscal policies are transmitted internationally. The analysis emphasizes that fiscal shifts of recent years constitute major disturbances to saving and investment flows. An increase in a country's fiscal deficit corresponds to a higher level of public sector dissaving. For increased foreign saving to enter through the capital account, the current account deficit must rise via an appreciating real exchange rate. An autonomous rise in investment, such as that induced by US tax measures passed in 1981–1982, produces qualitatively similar effects in the short run. Simulations suggest that a permanent fiscal deficit reduction of 1 percent of capacity output in any one of the three largest industrial countries produces a significant decline in real interest rates and a large initial depreciation in that country's currency. US tax incentives for investment would induce higher interest rates and an appreciated dollar. Simulations of the combined effects of increased US investment and observed movements in inflation-adjusted deficits in all three countries in 1981–1985 suggest that substantial fractions of these interest and exchange rate movements were related to shifts in fiscal policy.

This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.

This paper examines factors affecting saving, policy tools, and tax reform. The literature on factors affecting saving and capital formation in industrialized countries is reviewed, and measurement problems are examined. The effect on the saving rate of real rates of return, income redistribution, allocation of saving between corporations and individuals, growth of public and private pension plans, tax incentives, the bequest motive, energy prices, and inflation is considered. The limited tools available to policymakers to affect savings are discussed.