Statistical Inferences For Stochasic Processes

This volume comprises the proceedings of the AMS-IMS-SIAM Summer Research Conference on Statistical Inference from Stochastic Processes, held at Cornell University in August 1987. The conference brought together probabilists and statisticians who have developed important areas of application and made major contributions to the foundations of the subject. Statistical inference from stochastic processes has been important in a number of areas. For example, in applied probability, major advances have been made in recent years in stochastic models arising in science and engineering. However, the emphasis has been on the formulation and analysis of models rather than on the statistical methodology for hypothesis testing and inference. For these models to be of practical use, procedures for their statistical analysis are essential. In the area of probability models, initial work in inference focused on Markov chains, but many models have given rise to non-Markovian and point processes. In recent years, research in statistical inference from such processes not only solved specific problems but also resulted in major contributions to the conceptual framework of the subject as well as the associated techniques. The objective of the conference was to provide the opportunity to survey and evaluate the current state of the art in this area and to discuss future directions. The papers presented covered five topics within the broad domain of inference from stochastic processes: foundations, counting processes and survival analysis, likelihood and its ramifications, applications to statistics and probability models, and processes in economics. Requiring a graduate level background in probability and statistical inference, this book will provide students and researchers with a familiarity with the foundations of inference from stochastic processes and a knowledge of the current developments in this area.

This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.

Introductory examples of stochastic models; Special models; General theory; Further approaches.

This text is an Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Processes in discrete and continuous time with an initiation of the statistical inference. The material is standard and classical for a first course in Stochastic Processes at the senior/graduate level (lessons 1-12). To provide students with a view of statistics of stochastic processes, three lessons (13-15) were added. These lessons can be either optional or serve as an introduction to statistical inference with dependent observations. Several points of this text need to be elaborated, (1) The pedagogy is somewhat obvious. Since this text is designed for a one semester course, each lesson can be covered in one week or so. Having in mind a mixed audience of students from different departments (Math ematics, Statistics, Economics, Engineering, etc.) we have presented the material in each lesson in the most simple way, with emphasis on moti vation of concepts, aspects of applications and computational procedures. Basically, we try to explain to beginners questions such as "What is the topic in this lesson?" "Why this topic?", "How to study this topic math ematically?". The exercises at the end of each lesson will deepen the stu dents' understanding of the material, and test their ability to carry out basic computations. Exercises with an asterisk are optional (difficult) and might not be suitable for homework, but should provide food for thought.

The first book in inference for stochastic processes from a statistical, rather than a probabilistic, perspective. It provides a systematic exposition of theoretical results from over ten years of mathematical literature and presents, for the first time in book form, many new techniques and approaches.

Statistical Inference and Related Topics, Volume 2 presents the proceedings of the Summer Research Institute on Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, held in Bloomingdale, Indiana on July 31 to August 9, 1975. This book focuses on the theory of statistical inference for stochastic processes. Organized into 15 chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the case of continuous distributions with one real parameter. This text then reviews some results for multidimensional empirical processes and Brownian sheets when they are indexed by families of sets. Other chapters consider a class of cubic spline estimators of probability density functions over a finite interval. This book discusses as well the method to construct nonelimination type sequential procedures to select a subset containing all the superior populations. The final chapter deals with Markov sequences, which are among the most interesting available for study with a rich theory and varied applications. This book is a valuable resource for graduate students and research workers.