Statistics In Volcanology

Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

'Statistics in Volcanology' is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions.

This book contains 12 chapters dealing with the studies on volcanoes, their geological and geophysical setting, the theoretical aspects and the numerical modeling on volcanoes, the applications of volcanoes to the industry, and the impact of volcanoes on the human health, in different geological settings and using several techniques and methods, including the volcanology, the seismology, the statistical methods to assess the correlation between seismic and volcanic activity (modified Ripley's K-function to regional seismicity), the field geological survey of volcanic successions, the analytical methods of petrologic analysis, the petrography of the volcanic rocks with the individuation of the modal compositions of volcanic rocks and their comparison with major elements and trace elements in variation diagrams, and the argon isotopic measurements performed through the peak height comparison (unspiked) method. The oceanographic methods have also been applied to case studies of submarine volcanic edifices located in the Canary Islands (Atlantic Ocean), including the sampling of the water column with a conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) sensor rosette with 24 Niskin bottles, in order to determinate key physical and chemical parameters, such as the total-scale pH, the total dissolved inorganic carbon (C), the total alkalinity (A), the temperature, the salinity, and the dissolved oxygen. Problems of volcanic risk mitigation have also been treated, regarding the eruption disasters in Indonesia, a country where a high number of people live next to the volcanoes, and characterized by the lack of public awareness of the eruption disasters. Petrographic methods have been successfully applied to the study of the Cretaceous magmatism of the layered gabbroids of the Chukotka region (Pekulney Ridge, Russia), and geodynamic implications have been successfully established through geological and petrographic studies. The relationships among the mantle wedge, the convective heat and mass transfer, the infiltration metasomatism, the zoning, and the mathematical models have been applied to the comprehension of complex volcanic areas through the theoretical aspects of volcanic studies on magmatic chambers coupled with numerical modeling, including finite element models (FEMs) in the individuation of volcanic deformations.

This book is the second volume of the Updates in Volcanology and presents review style chapters as well as stand alone research works on volcanological problems that could be used as valuable resource for both researchers and graduate research students. The book presents chapters arching over a broad field of volcanology among many are considered to be dynamically developing subject areas such as volcano morphology, volcanic terrain evolution or volcaniclastic-hosted mineral resource analysis. The book also takes the reader to areas such as the Russian Far East or sedimentary basins in China which are very remote and generally less known for the global community. This book demonstrates the dynamic evolution of volcanology in the past decades.

Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.

This book is a visual learning experience as recorded on satellite images of volcanic eruptions and a manual describing how it is used for operational satellite monitoring. The atlas shows examples of the largest eruptions worldwide. The book fills a huge gap in the science of volcano remote sensing. A CD-ROM is included containing all the images and an associated website which will be regularly updated, showing results from new and current eruptions.

The Physics of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions includes seven review papers that outline our current understanding of several aspects of the physical processes affecting magma during volcanic eruptions. An introductory chapter highlights research areas where our understanding is incomplete, or even completely lacking, and where work needs advancing if our knowledge of volcanic processes is to be substantially improved. The book covers topics on the physical properties of silicic magma, vesiculation processes, conduit flow and fragmentation, gas loss from magmas during eruption, models of volcanic eruption columns, tephra dispersal and pyroclastic density currents.

This book presents intelligent methods like neural, neuro-fuzzy, machine learning, deep learning and metaheuristic methods and their applications in both volcanology and seismology. The complex system of volcanoes and also earthquakes is a big challenge to identify their behavior using available models, which motivates scientists to apply non-model based methods. As there are lots of seismology and volcanology data sets, i.e., the local and global networks, one solution is using intelligent methods in which data-based algorithms are used.