Stock Market Development And Financial Intermediaries

May 1995 The three most developed stock markets are in Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and the most underdeveloped markets are in Colombia, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Markets tend to be more developed in richer countries, but some markets commonly labeled emerging (for example, in Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand) are systematically more developed than some markets commonly labeled developed (for example, in Australia, Canada, and many European countries). World stock markets are booming. Between 1982 and 1993, stock market capitalization grew from $2 trillion to $10 trillion, an average 15 percent a year. A disproportionate amount of this growth was in emerging stock markets, which rose from 3 percent of world stock market capitalization to 14 percent in the same period. Yet there is little empirical evidence about how important stock markets are to long-term economic development. Economists have neither a common concept nor a common measure of stock market development, so we know little about how stock market development affects the rest of the financial system or how corporations finance themselves. Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine collected and compared many different indicators of stock market development using data on 41 countries from 1986 to 1993. Each indicator has statistical and conceptual shortcomings, so they used different measures of stock market size, liquidity, concentration, and volatility, of institutional development, and of international integration. Their goal: to summarize information about a variety of indicators for stock market development, in order to facilitate research into the links between stock markets, economic development, and corporate financing decisions. They highlight certain important correlations: * In the 41 countries they studied, there are enormous cross-country differences in the level of stock market development for each indicator. The ratio of market capitalization to GDP, for example, is greater than 1 in five countries and less than 0.10 in five others. * There are intuitively appealing correlations among indicators. For example, big markets tend to be less volatile, more liquid, and less concentrated in a few stocks. Internationally integrated markets tend to be less volatile. And institutionally developed markets tend to be large and liquid. * The three most developed markets are in Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The most underdeveloped markets are in Colombia, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Switzerland seem to have highly developed stock markets, whereas Argentina, Greece, Pakistan, and Turkey have underdeveloped markets. Markets tend to be more developed in richer countries, but many markets commonly labeled emerging (for example, in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) are systematically more developed than markets commonly labeled developed (for example, in Australia, Canada, and many European countries). * Between 1986 and 1993, some markets developed rapidly in size, liquidity, and international integration. Indonesia, Portugal, Turkey, and Venezuela experienced explosive development, for example. Case studies on the reasons for (and economic consequences of) this rapid development could yield valuable insights. * The level of stock market development is highly correlated with the development of banks, nonbank financial institutions (finance companies, mutual funds, brokerage houses), insurance companies, and private pension funds. This paper -- a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to study stock market development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 678-37).

The relationship between the development of stock markets and the functioning of financial intermediaries may be complementary.

Is there a strong empirical association between stock market development and long-term economic growth? Cross-country regressions suggest that there is a positive and robust association.Levine and Zervos empirically evaluate the relationship between stock market development and long-term growth. The data suggest that stock market development is positively associated with economic growth. Moreover, instrumental variables procedures indicate a strong connection between the predetermined component of stock market development and economic growth in the long run.While cross-country regressions imply a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, the results should be viewed as suggestive partial correlations that stimulate additional research rather than as conclusive findings. Much work remains to be done to shed light on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Careful case studies might help identify causal relationships and further research could be done on the time-series property of such relationships.Research should also be done to identify policies that facilitate the development of sound securities markets.This paper - a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study the relationship between financial systems and economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 679-53).

March 1996 Is there a strong empirical association between stock market development and long-term economic growth? Cross-country regressions suggest that there is a positive and robust association. Levine and Zervos empirically evaluate the relationship between stock market development and long-term growth. The data suggest that stock market development is positively associated with economic growth. Moreover, instrumental variables procedures indicate a strong connection between the predetermined component of stock market development and economic growth in the long run. While cross-country regressions imply a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, the results should be viewed as suggestive partial correlations that stimulate additional research rather than as conclusive findings. Much work remains to be done to shed light on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Careful case studies might help identify causal relationships and further research could be done on the time-series property of such relationships. Research should also be done to identify policies that facilitate the development of sound securities markets. This paper -- a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to study the relationship between financial systems and economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth2 (RPO 679-53).

With foreign capital funds dwindling, governments in many developing countries-- with increased Bank support-- are looking to develop capital markets to provide risk capital for the corporate sector. But first, some basic issues must be empirically explored.

Are debt and equity finance complements or substitutes? Probably complements, which means that the existence of active stock markets should increase the volume of business for financial intermediaries.