Storm Surge Forecasting

The report contains an adaptation of a unique storm-surge forecasting technique developed by Dr. C.P. Jelesnianski. This technique results in a computed storm surge profile at the inner boundary of an artificial standard basin seaward of the coast. The profile is derived from nomograms based upon a standard storm passing over a standard basin. Thumb rules and guidelines are presented in the publication for subjectively modifying the computer storm surge height as it moves shoreward of the artificial basin boundary, to fit the natural conditions of a particular coastline. Major advantages of this system are its applicability to almost any locale, its adaptability to data normally available to the field forecaster and the speed with which the forecast may be modified to remain current with natural fluctuations of the storm.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has developed a technique for forecasting extratropical storm surges along the northeast coast of the United States. The storm surge is caused mainly by the strong winds associated with extra-tropical storms over nearshore areas.

Was Sandy a freak of nature, or the new normal? On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy reached the shores of the northeastern United States to become one of the most destructive storms in history. But was Sandy a freak event, or should we have been better prepared for it? Was it a harbinger of things to come as the climate warms? In this fascinating and accessible work of popular science, atmospheric scientist and Columbia University professor Adam Sobel addresses these questions, combining his deep knowledge of the climate with his firsthand experience of the event itself. Sobel explains the remarkable atmospheric conditions that gave birth to Sandy and determined its path. He gives us insight into the science that led to the accurate forecasts of the storm from genesis to landfall, as well as an understanding of why our meteorological vocabulary failed our leaders in warning us about this unprecedented weather system—part hurricane, part winter-type nor'easter, fully deserving of the title "Superstorm." Storm Surge brings together the melting glaciers, the warming oceans, and a broad historical perspective to explain how our changing climate and developing coastlines are making New York and other cities more vulnerable. Engaging, informative, and timely, Sobel's book provokes us to think differently about how we can better prepare for the storms in our future.

This accessible shortform book describes storm surge forecasting to enable port managers and practitioners to forecast these and mitigate their effects. This is particularly useful as global warming increases the severity of typhoons, particularly windstorms and storm surge disasters, globally. The authors first summarize the current status of typhoons and storm surges in practice. They also present a combination of the latest findings at the research level and at the practical level. Throughout the book, the authors carefully explain the use and limitations of empirical typhoon models that practitioners should learn from, including statistical, numerical, probabilistic, data-driven, and coastal vulnerability models. They also explore artificial neural networks and convolutional neural networks and their use in such models. Finally, the book describes the potential for further development of empirical typhoon models (such as future climate experiments). This book is a vital resource that enables port managers to make effective and informed decisions when conducting storm surge forecasting in practice. It also contains useful insights for civil engineering students, especially those studying coastal engineering.