Structural Change And Poverty Reduction In Ethiopia Economy Wide Analysis Of The Evolving Role Of Agriculture

This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

The herd dynamics model (HDM) component of the Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) model specifically documented here is developed in the context of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and managed by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Animal Sciences. The main objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive analytical approach or systems model capable of assessing (i) how animal herd or flock sizes change over time and in response to on-farm policies; (ii) how alternative national trends and policies affect future development of the livestock system as a whole; (iii) how changes in livestock policies affect people working throughout the livestock system; and (iv) how changes in animal-source food (ASF) production and prices affect the real incomes and consumption patterns of different population groups. The HDM developed provides a highly detailed description of the cattle sector while laying a framework that can be easily adapted to other types of livestock. The model allows one to closely examine the performance of the livestock sector disaggregated by agroecology zones or regions. The HDM is linked both ways with a core economywide model through economic variables such as relative prices of livestock activities, prices and availability of intermediate inputs including feed, and changes in supply of livestock capital in the meat and milk production sectors. Given the complex interplay in the livestock sector such as offtake decisions, death rates, milk and meat yield, and feeding practices (through quality indexed feed demand), the HDM developed under this project is a fully dynamic livestock sector model that provides several avenues for policy analysis on livestock management, the sector’s future trajectory, and its dynamics, given risks and opportunities within the sector and beyond.

Trade will have an important role at the global level in generating the growth necessary for reducing extreme poverty to 3 percent and boosting prosperity for the poorest 40 percent by 2030. To identify the most important challenges that exist in maximizing the positive impact of trade on poverty, we need to understand who the poor are, where they are, and what economic activities they undertake. To this end, the study highlights particularly relevant dimensions of poverty: rural poverty in remote areas, informality, fragile and conflict situations, and women. For each of these issues, this study considers the main traderelated barriers and challenges, along with policy responses to address them. It shows the importance of the multilateral trading system and of the Doha Round, as well as the important role of the WBG and WTO in promoting coherence and implementing trade policies in a way that delivers the greatest possible benefits for the poor.

Many people believe that Africa will struggle to create jobs for its rapidly-growing population, and that rural youth will eventually migrate to cities or other countries. This book uses survey data to create a nuanced understanding of the constraints and opportunities facing rural youth in Africa.

Rapid structural transformation and urbanization are transforming agriculture and food production in rural areas across the world. This textbook provides a comprehensive review and assessment of the multi-faceted nature of agriculture and rural development, particularly in the developing world, where the greatest challenges occur. It is designed around five thematic parts: Agricultural Intensification and Technical Change; Political Economy of Agricultural Policies; Community and Rural Institutions; Agriculture, Nutrition, and Health; and Future Relevance of International Institutions. Each chapter presents a detailed but accessible review of the literature on the specific topic and discusses the frontiers in research and institutional changes needed as societies adapt to the transformation processes. All authors are eminent scholars with international reputations, who have been actively engaged in the contemporary debates around agricultural development and rural transformation.

Sustainable Food and Agriculture: An Integrated Approach is the first book to look at the imminent threats to sustainable food security through a cross-sectoral lens. As the world faces food supply challenges posed by the declining growth rate of agricultural productivity, accelerated deterioration of quantity and quality of natural resources that underpin agricultural production, climate change, and hunger, poverty and malnutrition, a multi-faced understanding is key to identifying practical solutions. This book gives stakeholders a common vision, concept and methods that are based on proven and widely agreed strategies for continuous improvement in sustainability at different scales. While information on policies and technologies that would enhance productivity and sustainability of individual agricultural sectors is available to some extent, literature is practically devoid of information and experiences for countries and communities considering a comprehensive approach (cross-sectoral policies, strategies and technologies) to SFA. This book is the first effort to fill this gap, providing information on proven options for enhancing productivity, profitability, equity and environmental sustainability of individual sectors and, in addition, how to identify opportunities and actions for exploiting cross-sectoral synergies. Provides proven options of integrated technologies and policies, helping new programs identify appropriate existing programs Presents mechanisms/tools for balancing trade-offs and proposes indicators to facilitate decision-making and progress measurement Positions a comprehensive and informed review of issues in one place for effective education, comparison and evaluation