Technical Aspects Of Detection And Inspection Controls Of A Nuclear Weapons Test Ban

Considers technical problems of a nuclear weapons test ban, including the type of research and development programs necessary for a workable system of detection and inspection.

Drawing upon the considerable existing body of technical material related to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the National Academy of Sciences reviewed and assessed the key technical issues that arose during the Senate debate over treaty ratification. In particular, these include: (1) the capacity of the United States to maintain confidence in the safety and reliability of its nuclear stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing; (2) the nuclear-test detection capabilities of the international monitoring system (with and without augmentation by national systems and instrumentation in use for scientific purposes, and taking into account the possibilities for decoupling nuclear explosions from surrounding geologic media); and (3) the additions to their nuclear-weapons capabilities that other countries could achieve through nuclear testing at yield levels that might escape detection, and the effect of such additions on the security of the United States.

This report reviews and updates the 2002 National Research Council report, Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This report also assesses various topics, including: the plans to maintain the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile without nuclear-explosion testing; the U.S. capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions; commitments necessary to sustain the stockpile and the U.S. and international monitoring systems; and potential technical advances countries could achieve through evasive testing and unconstrained testing. Sustaining these technical capabilities will require action by the National Nuclear Security Administration, with the support of others, on a strong scientific and engineering base maintained through a continuing dynamic of experiments linked with analysis, a vigorous surveillance program, adequate ratio of performance margins to uncertainties. This report also emphasizes the use of modernized production facilities and a competent and capable workforce with a broad base of nuclear security expertise.