The 2012 Campaign And The Timeline Of Presidential Elections

Do voters cast ballots for the candidates whose positions best match their own? Or does the race for president come down to who runs the most effective campaign? In their book, The Timeline of Presidential Elections, published in 2012, Erikson and Wlezien documented how both factors come into play. Having amassed data from national polls covering presidential elections from 1952 to 2008, they could track how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. But they wanted to know whether Barak Obama’s historic 2012 campaign would follow the same pattern. This e-book both presents the central arguments from Timeline and updates the statistical analysis to include data from 2012. The authors also use the 2012 presidential campaign as a test of the empirical patterns they found in the previous fifteen elections. They show that Obama’s campaign conforms to their projections, and they confirm that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of--or not made aware of--fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. The 2012 Campaign and the Timeline of Presidential Elections will be useful in courses on the election process.

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Coming out of one of the most contentious elections in history, Dennis Johnson and Lara Brown have assembled an outstanding team of authors to examine one of the fiercest and most closely fought presidential elections of our time. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions of Campaigning for President, the 2016 edition combines the talents and insights of political scientists who specialize in campaigns and elections together with seasoned political professionals who have been involved in previous presidential campaigns. Campaigning for President is the only series on presidential campaigns that features both political scientists and professional consultants. This book focuses on the most important questions of this most unusual presidential campaign. What was the appeal of Donald Trump? Has Twitter and social media become the dominant means of communicating? How did fake news, WikiLeaks, and the Russians factor in this election? What happened to the Obama coalition and why couldn’t Hillary Clinton capitalize on it? Hundreds of millions of Super PAC dollars were raised and spent, and much of that was wasted. What happened? Is the wild west of online media the new norm for presidential contests? These and many other questions are answered in the provocative essays by scholars and practitioners. The volume also is packed with valuable appendixes: a timeline of the presidential race, biographical sketches of each candidate, a roster of political consultants, the primary and general election results, exit polls, and campaign spending. New to the 2016 Edition The 2016 presidential contest brings a completely new set of players, policies, and electoral challenges. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions, the authors probe the strategies and tactics of the candidate campaigns and the outside organizations. The chapters focus on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, but also look at the Bernie Sanders insurgency, the collapse of the mainstream Republican candidates, and the dynamics of the general election. Chapters also analyze the changes in campaign finance, new technologies, the role of social media, and how fake news and subterfuge might become the new realities of presidential campaigning.

Though many analyses of the 2012 presidential election have emerged, none can match this collection's depth, diversity, or ability to critically and soundly argue where American politics will go from this point forward. This volume includes some of the most recognized scholars in the field and innovative younger scholars who provide a fresh perspective on the election. It is a diverse and award winning group, including established and respected names in presidency studies, political psychology, and election forecasting. The contributions address a wide range of subjects, from the accuracy of pre-election forecasts, the effect of the election on relations between Obama and congressional leaders, the effect of race and religion on the outcome, the consequences for the Republican Party, and prospects for leadership in a second term. Rather than a simplistic account of what happened during the campaign, the volume will contribute to our understanding of significant questions about the presidency, voting behavior, political parties, and elections.

The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake critically analyzes the 2016 presidential election. The chapters in this book identify key factors behind the election of Donald J. Trump, explore the unconventional campaign, analyze the unexpected election result, evaluate the forecasting models, and speculate on the effect of the election outcome on politics and governance in the Trump Administration.

Elections capture a sense of national identity and imply a future direction for the nation. The book seeks to unravel how elections and policies act together dynamically by analyzing parties, strategies, foreign and domestic policies, and the role of religion in political dialogue.

During every election cycle, political observers generate a seemingly limitless supply of theories, opinions, and predictions. Unfortunately, many of these assertions oversimplify complex subjects or overhype the latest political fads. Inevitably, some misinformation becomes part of the conventional wisdom about American elections. The objective of Conventional Wisdom and American Elections: Exploding Myths, Exploring Misconceptions is to bring clarity to several of these subjects. For example, it is now commonplace for commentators to emphasize the negative tactics and practices of the campaigns of presidential candidates. In 2016, some commentators suggested that the presidential campaign was the “nastiest” ever, with the campaigns of President Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and their supporters, going to “new extremes” of negativity. However, these claims are not new. Dating as far back as the presidential election of 1800, critics of Thomas Jefferson stated that his potential victory would bring about legal prostitution and the burning of the Bible. In 1824, opponents of Andrew Jackson charged that he was a murderer and that his wife was a bigamist. Perhaps most scurrilous of all, Jackson’s opponents even accused his dead mother of being a prostitute. In total, Conventional Wisdom and American Elections identifies eleven widely held myths and misconceptions about elections in the United States. The conclusions drawn throughout the book are based on the most current political science research. In some instances, the literature is clear in debunking popular myths about American elections. On other issues, research findings are more mixed. In either case, Conventional Wisdom and American Elections clarifies the issues so that readers can discern between those in which scholars have largely resolved and those in which honest debate remains.