The Availability Methodological Soundness And Scope Of Consumer Price Statistics In 2020

This paper analyzes the availability, methodological soundness, and scope of Consumer Price statistics in IMF member and non-member countries in 2020. Consumer price statistics are instrumental in the development of monetary policy and in monitoring economic developments. They also often have administrative uses such as in determine wage increase or seting pension payments. This analysis examines the appropriateness of the current set of global consumer price statistics for current policy development and highlights regions where further development may be required. The analysis is based on the results of a new annual survey of CPI compilation practices in 207 economies as of the end of 2020. The survey was completed by statistical authorities between March 2021 and June 2021. In cases of non-response, IMF staff estimates were used. IMF Staff estimates were based on information taken from the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) and country websites to provide the status of consumer price index compilation practices. These data summarize the following key aspects; i) Production, publication and scope of the Consumer Price Index Program, ii) Data sources, iii) CPI compilation methods and iv) Concepts and classifications.

This paper presents Jordan’s 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (ECF). Jordan’s IMF-supported economic reform program is anchored on structural reforms designed to spur growth by creating jobs—especially for women and young people—and reduce poverty. The Jordanian economy has continued facing significant challenges. Macroeconomic stability and external buffers have been preserved, but fiscal vulnerabilities remain. Structural reforms and continued fiscal consolidation efforts are critical to lift growth, reduce unemployment and bring debt on a downward path. Continued support from donors, particularly through concessional loans and budget grants, will be critical to help Jordan cope with humanitarian and economic needs. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak poses significant risks to the program implementation. The authorities have implemented measures to help contain the impact of the pandemic; however, adjustments to the program modalities might be necessary considering the rapidly changing circumstances. Donor support through budget grants and concessional financing will be critical to help Jordan cope with the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Syrian refugee crisis and to support program objectives.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Uruguay highlights that the country enjoys political stability, strong governance and institutions, and a high degree of social cohesion. Following a decade and a half of robust growth, the country boasts high per capita income, low levels of poverty and inequality, and a resilient financial sector. More recently, in a context of a volatile region and global uncertainties, challenges have emerged. The political and economic landscapes—with the post-election mandate and a growth boost due to large private and infrastructure investments—present an opportunity to address these challenges and preserve the social compact for future generations. The authorities are expected to use the opportunity to reduce debt and bring inflation toward the mid-point of the target range, to rebuild buffers and manage sizable risks. In addition, the authorities should leverage Uruguay’s institutional advantages to further improve the fiscal and inflation targeting frameworks and implement structural reforms, in order to raise potential growth and safeguard the achievements of the past decade.

The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.

This paper discusses Georgia’s Request for Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The authorities in Georgia have formulated a comprehensive program to preserve macro and financial stability and advance structural reforms to bolster growth. The program envisions fiscal consolidation over the medium term, anchored in keeping debt at its current level while shifting spending toward capital investment to address infrastructure bottlenecks. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the approval of the three-year Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and the cancellation of the SBA arrangement.

Norway’s key challenge is to get the right balance of support for recovery and adjustment until the crisis is firmly in its past. The authorities intend to continue exceptional policy support into 2021, adjusted to reflect the rebound in economic activity and pace of vaccinations in the second half of the year, and with better targeting to affected sectors. This will support the expected closing of the output gap by 2023 and help mitigate scarring, while also facilitating reallocation of capital and labor.

The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.

The economy is recovering from the shocks of civil unrest in November 2021 and a local outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2022, driven by increasing activity after the reopening of the border and preparation for the 2023 Pacific Games. But the recovery has been fragile, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to a decline in the terms of trade and rising inflation. A large pipeline of infrastructure projects financed by concessional borrowing is expected to support medium-term growth and help reduce a large infrastructure gap. But the country’s external position is projected to significantly weaken because of these projects and declining log exports, with reserve coverage declining as a result. This outlook highlights the pressing needs for reform to improve public investment management, as well as to diversify the economy and enhance its competitiveness.