The Decline Of Arab Oil Revenues

First published in 1986, The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues explores the fall in the economic value of Arab oil reserves in the 1980s. Some of the threats to Arab countries include depletion of oil resources, rise of alternative sources of energy, international policies designed to control oil prices and growing conflicts of interest between producing and consuming countries. The editors suggest that any decline in oil revenues would negatively affect the economic, political, social and psychological structure of Arab societies since they are yet to explore non-oil sources of wealth. Consequently, the editors stress on the importance of researching the desert, which covers 94% of Arab lands, as a potential source of wealth. Given the current global shift towards sustainable forms of energy, this book is a timely reminder of the economic and political implications of such a shift on Arab countries for students of political science, international relations, geography, and economics.

Shaped by the emotional climate of the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict, the controversies between the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations are of major international concern. Shwadran outlines the progressive rise in the power of the oil-producing countries and the decline in the control exercised by the concessionary foreign countries that has culminated in the almost total nationalization of the foreign oil companies. Because of the highly charged atmosphere surrounding the issues and their grave importance on world politics, the problems are, at once, highly difficult to encompass and enormously important to understand. Through a myriad of facts and figures the author sees the underlying patterns with precision. Often narrowly viewed as having only two sides —that of oil producers and consumers—the situation is reflected in this book in all its facets. Seen in this totality of conflicting needs, desires, abilities, and objectives, the Middle East oil crisis takes on the contradictory and explosive nature which has affected us all. Middle East Oil, born of the author's years of scholarship and exposure in the field, describes the problems of the past but, more important, it gives insight into how the problem will manifest itself in the future, and provides a direction for efforts toward a final resolution. Contents: Introduction / From the Six Day War to the End of 1970 / From the Teheran 1971 Agreement to the October 1973 War / The Producers Develop the Oil Industry / The Transporters / Nationalization and Participation / The Arab Oil Embargo / The Efforts of the Consuming Countries / Surpluses and Recycling / Solutions / Bibliography

The downhill slide in the global price of crude oil, which started mid-2014, had major repercussions across the Middle East for net oil exporters, as well as importers closely connected to the oil-producing countries from the Gulf. Following the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, the oil price decline represented a second major shock for the region in the early twenty-first century – one that has continued to impose constraints, but also provided opportunities. Offering the first comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern political economy in response to the 2014 oil price decline, this book connects oil market dynamics with an understanding of socio-political changes. Inspired by rentierism, the contributors present original studies on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The studies reveal a large diversity of country-specific policy adjustment strategies: from the migrant workers in the Arab Gulf, who lost out in the post-2014 period but were incapable of repelling burdensome adjustment policies, to Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, who have never been able to fulfil the expectation that they could benefit from the 2014 oil price decline. With timely contributions on the COVID-19-induced oil price crash in 2020, this collection signifies that rentierism still prevails with regard to both empirical dynamics in the Middle East and academic discussions on its political economy.

Writing this book would have been impossible without the help of certain institutions and persons. For a gas-producing and oil-processing country like the Netherlands, there was surprisingly very little, publicly available, research material. Public libraries' collections contained, with a certain degree of inconsistency, little of the more specialised sources. I would therefore like to express my gratitude towards Royal Dutch Shell, and especially the library staff in The Hague, for allowing me to use the company's library, thanking them for their assistance in finding and supplying the required data. I am also grateful for the financial assistance of the 'Nederlandse organisatie voor wetenschappelijk onderzoek' (NWO) and the Faculty of Law of the University of Leiden. They provided the financial means to work a (crucial) month in the very well equipped library of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. I am indebted to the staff of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and particularly to Robert Mabro and Jeremy Turk, for their comments, support, and friendship. After I spent a month in the Institute in July 1989, I was able to return for two five-month periods in 1990 and 1991. For both periods, the Oxford Institute and the Leiden Law Faculty provided me with the necessary means. I would also like to express special gratitude to some people who have been a great support and supplied me with valuable comments at various stages of the study.

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

A bibliography of books and index of articles in periodicals on Islam and the Muslim world. Also includes reviews.

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.