The Dynamic Decision Maker

The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.

This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.

Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.

Dramatically improve the decisions you make every day using insights from the latest neuroscience We make hundreds of decisions daily, from small ones – such as what to wear today and how to drive to work – to big ones – such as the company strategy and whether to launch a restructuring program that may impact thousands of people. In business, studies suggest that company executives spend 40% of their time making decisions and that the effectiveness of their decisions largely drives the results of the companies that they lead. In Super Deciders: The Science and Practice of Making Decisions in Dynamic and Uncertain Times, a team of renown researchers and business advisors deliver an application of the latest advances in neuroscience to effectively making the most difficult decisions, those we make in dynamic environments, in situations of uncertainty when we need to predict outcomes, we’re missing relevant information, time is scarce, and the environment is constantly changing. The book is written in three parts. In the first part, the book offers a practical framework for making effective decisions under uncertainty. In the second part, the book discusses approaches to effectively implement those decisions, thus managing change at every level, from the individual to the organizational. Finally, the book develops suggestions on how leaders can diagnose and improve – in themselves and in the people they lead – the cognitive abilities relevant to decision-making. You’ll also find: An enlightening business narrative detailing the journey of a fictional leader of an international travel operator named Inuk. Six cases that put you into real-life situations of making difficult decisions and that help you assess your decision-making effectiveness. An accessible and fun introduction to the neuroscience of decision-making. Ideal for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, Super Deciders is a can’t-miss decision-making playbook that you’ve been waiting for.

Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.