The Effect Of International Remittances On Economic Growth In Sub Saharan Africa

Master's Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 3.75 (good), Ethiopian Civil Service University, language: English, abstract: This paper is about the effect of international remittances of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. For many developing economies, remittances constitute the single largest source of foreign exchange, exceeding export revenues, foreign direct investment (FDI), and other private capital inflows. This study aims to examine the effect of international remittances on economic growth in SSA countries using a panel data approach. The System Generalized Method of Moments was used as the main model of analysis. The sample consists of 29 SSA countries for the period 2004-2019. The study findings show that international remittance has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in SSA. The study recommends that SSA countries should be designing policies and strategies that facilitate less costly and hassle-free flow of remittances into national development. There is a need to have well-established institutional frameworks to train, support, and ensure the welfare of emigrants abroad by the provision of information or services to assist migrant welfare and promote remittances and investment in the home country.

The paper investigates the determinants and the macroeconomic role of remittances in sub-Saharan Africa, assembling the most comprehensive dataset available so far on remittances in the region and incorporating data on the diaspora. It finds that remittances are larger for countries with a larger diaspora or when the diaspora is located in wealthier countries, and that they behave countercyclically, consistent with a role as a shock absorber. Although the effect of remittances in growth regressions is negative, countries with well functioning domestic institutions seem nevertheless to be better at unlocking the potential for remittances to contribute to faster economic growth.

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries. We first propose two network centrality measures to assess the role of some sectors as key input providers in the economy. Then, we use these measures to quantify the effect of sectoral linkages on sectoral and total output following an increase in remittances inflows. Our empirical results suggest that the effects of remittances on recipient economies increase with the degree of linkages across sectors, which is especially prominent in the case of the financial intermediation sector. Our paper contributes to the emerging macroeconomic literature on the propagation of shocks across sectors and the implications for the whole economy.

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of international remittances on countries and households in the developing world. To analyze the country-level impact of remittances, the paper estimates an econometric model based on a new data set of 115 developing countries. Results suggest that countries located close to a major remittance-sending region (like the United States, OECD-Europe) are more likely to receive international remittances, and that while the level of poverty in a country has no statistical effect on the amount of remittances received, for those countries which are fortunate enough to receive remittances, these resource flows do tend to reduce the level and depth of poverty. At the household level, a review of findings from recent research suggest that households receiving international remittances spend less at the margin on consumption goods-like food-and more on investment goods-like education and housing. Households receiving international remittances also tend to invest more in entrepreneurial activities.

This paper assesses the impact of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to SSA swamps remittances, this paper finds that remittances, which are a stable, private transfer, have a direct poverty mitigating effect, and promote financial development. These findings hold even after factoring in the reverse causality between remittances, poverty and financial development. The paper posits that formalizing such flows can serve as an effective access point for "unbanked" individuals and households, and that the effective use of such flows can mitigate the costs of skilled out-migration in SSA.

This book provides a strong multidisciplinary examination of the links between migration, remittances and sustainable development in Africa. It makes evidence-based policy recommendations on migration to help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The key themes examined are migration and remittances, and their relations with the following issues: economic transformation, education and knowledge, corruption and conflict. Cross-cutting issues such as gender equality and youth are weaved throughout the chapters, and a rich range of country contexts are presented. The volume also discusses challenges in managing migration flows. It will be of interest to advanced students, academics and policy makers in development economics and sustainable development.

The role of remittances in development and economic growth is not well understood. This is partly because the literatures on the causes and effects of remittances remain separate. We develop a framework that links the motivation for remittances with their effect on economic activity. Because remittances take place under asymmetric information and economic uncertainty, there exists a significant moral hazard problem. The implication is that remittances have a negative effect on economic growth. We test this prediction using panel methods on a large sample of countries. The results indicate that remittances do have a negative effect on economic growth, which indicates that the moral hazard problem in remittances is severe.

The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.