The Employment Forecast Survey

In this report Professor Hartle presents the findings of a series of investigations that have been carried out, partly under the auspices and partly with the co-operation, of the Canadian Department of Labour. The object of the investigations, the Employment Forecast Survey, was initiated by the Economics and Research Branch of that Department in 1946 to obtain information about the future levels and trends of employment in industry. The first phase of the investigation was carried out in 1953 by Professor William C. Hood assisted by Professor Hartle, and their report, dealing with the administration, policy, and technique of the Survey, constituted the foundation of the present study. In 1956-7 Professor Hartle conducted further studies of the Survey and its administration, analysing in particular the predictions which have been derived from the forecasts provided by individual establishments, and evaluating improvements which might have been made in the reliability both of the employer's forecasts and the Department's conclusions. The final phase of investigation carried out by Professor Hartle has been concerned mainly with an analysis of the forecasts of individual establishments. Professor Hartle's monograph, comprising as it does the findings of this whole series of studies, thus provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the Employment Forecast Survey. It is valuable for its comparison of the EFS with similar surveys conducted in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Canadian Studies in Economics, No. 14.

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USA. Report presenting a comparison of alternative methodologys for making occupational employment projections at the local level labour market level - considers use of econometric models, input output models and the employer survey approach, and includes recommendations. Bibliography pp. 49 to 51 and diagrams.