The European Union West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement

Despite recent modifications, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West African (WA) countries is still being criticized for its potential detrimental effects on WA countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the EPA on these countries. A dynamic multicountry, multisector computable general equilibrium trade model with modeling of the dual-dual economy and with a consistent tariff aggregator is used to simulate a series of new scenarios that include updated information on the agreement. We also go beyond estimating macrolevel economic effects to analyze the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that the implementation of the EPA between the EU and WA countries would have marginal but positive impacts on Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire and negative impacts on Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. The impact on poverty indicators in Ghana and Nigeria would be marginal. From the perspective of WA countries, this study supports the view that recent EU concessions are not sufficient and that domestic fiscal reforms are needed in WA countries themselves.

The headlong rush of the European Union (EU) in Free Trade Agreements reaches the paroxysm of absurdity when it imposes them on West Africa, whose per capita GDP is 21 times lower than its own. This Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) would make West Africa lose 76% of its customs revenue on its imports from the EU and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment due to the loss of competitiveness of its companies including the informal sectors. The latter will be worsened by the premature signing, with support from the EU, of the Continental Free Trade Area by 13 of 16 West African States, all this based on a number of untruths from the European Commission, as identified in this book.

Starting from the observation that the establishment of free trade as such will substantially impact upon economic development, the different contributions focus on the potential contribution of non-traditional aspects of EPAs.

This paper applies a partial equilibrium model to analyze the fiscal revenue implications of the prospective economic partnership agreement between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the European Union. The authors find that, under standard import price and substitution elasticity assumptions, eliminating tariffs on all imports from the European Union would increase ECOWAS' imports from the European Union by 10.5-11.5 percent for selected ECOWAS countries, namely Cape Verde, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal. This increase in imports would be accompanied by a 2.4-5.6 percent decrease in total government revenues, owing mainly to lower fiscal revenues. Tariff revenue losses should represent 1 percent of GDP in Nigeria, 1.7 percent in Ghana, 2 percent in Senegal, and 3.6 percent in Cape Verde. However, the revenue losses may be manageable because of several mitigating factors, in particular the likelihood of product exclusions, the length of the agreement's implementation period, and the scope for reform of exemption regimes. The large country-by-country differences in fiscal revenue loss suggest that domestic tax reforms and fiscal transfers within ECOWAS could be important complements to the agreement's implementation.

Abstract: Trade can be a key driver of growth for African countries, as it has been for those countries, particularly in East Asia, that have experienced high and sustained rates of growth. Economic partnership agreements with the European Union could be instrumental in a competitiveness framework, but to do so they would have to be designed carefully in a way that supports integration into the global economy and is consistent with national development strategies. Interim agreements have focused on reciprocal tariff removal and less restrictive rules of origin. To be fully effective, economic partnership agreements will have to address constraints to regional integration, including both tariff and non-tariff barriers; improve trade facilitation; and define appropriate most favored nation services liberalization. At the same time, African countries will need to reduce external tariff peak barriers on a most favored nation basis to ensure that when preferences for the European Union are implemented after transitional periods, they do not lead to substantial losses from trade diversion. This entails an ambitious agenda of policy reform that must be backed up by development assistance in the form of "aid for trade."

The resurgence of regionalism is borne out of the current political logjams that have characterized the governance and operations of multilateral trading system over the past one decade and a half. Oloruntoba critically examines Euro-Nigeria relations within the context of the Economic Partnership Agreements in terms of the political and economic implications of the agreements on Nigeria’s non-oil exports sub-sectors. Set within one of the main objectives of the Economic Partnership Agreements, he also interrogates the prospects and challenges of regional integration in Africa under the regime of transnational accumulation, which the Economic Partnership Agreements represents.