The Fiscal State Dependent Effects Of Capital Income Tax Cuts

Using the post-WWII data of U.S. federal corporate income tax changes, within a Smooth Transition VAR, this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt-dependent: it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low. To explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state-dependent tax effect, the paper uses a DSGE model with regime-switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment. As government debt increases to a sufficiently high level, the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising, and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially, whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase. Also, a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature.

Chapter 1 argues that fiscal policies are at the forefront of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal measures can save lives, protect the most-affected people and firms from the economic impact of the pandemic, and prevent the health crisis from turning into a deep long-lasting slump. A key priority is to fully accommodate spending on health and emergency services. Global coordination is for a universally low-cost vaccine and to support countries with limited health capacity. Large, temporary and targeted support is urgently needed for affected workers and firms until the emergency abates. As the shutdowns end, broad-based, coordinated fiscal stimulus—where financing conditions permit—will become more effective in fostering the recovery. Chapter 2 argues that fiscal policies are at the forefront of facilitating an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic once the Great Lockdown ends. Policymakers can achieve this objective with IDEAS: Invest for the future—in health systems, infrastructure, low carbon technologies, education, and research; adopt well-planned Discretionary policies that can be deployed quickly; and Enhance Automatic Stabilizers, which are built-in budgetary tax and spending measures that automatically stabilize incomes and consumption. Importantly, improving unemployment benefit systems and social safety nets can protect household incomes from adverse shocks and strengthen resilience against future epidemics. Over the past decade, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have doubled in importance among the world’s largest corporations. They often deliver basic services such as water, electricity, and loans for families and small businesses. At their best, they can help promote higher economic growth and achieve development goals. However, many are a burden to taxpayers and the economy. Chapter 3 discusses what governments can do to get the most out of SOEs. This includes ensuring the firm’s managers have the right incentives and there is effective oversight. It also requires a high degree of transparency of their activities.

This proceedings book presents outcomes of the Innovative Economic Symposium – 2020 organized by the Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice (VŠTE) in Russia in collaboration with two universities: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow) and Samara State University of Economics (Samara). The symposium aims to bring together experts and young scientists in economy, management, international relations, finance, marketing, and professional education from Asian and European countries, to share knowledge and experience and discuss issues related to stable economic development, international business, entrepreneurship, Industry 4.0, cooperation between educational and business structures, strategic decision-making, and processes of economic globalization and fragmentation. The book consists of two parts corresponding to the thematic symposium areas. The book content covers two sections: stable development in unstable world and globalization and fragmentation forces of the current world economy. The main topics included in the book are as follows: - Where is the world moving to and where is the economy in it? - Institutionalization of innovations. - Network architecture of economic relations. - Competences for the future. - Smart change management. - Monetary and fiscal policy development as a factor of economic modernization. - Role of international trade in the economy globalization. - Impact of globalization and economic fragmentation on the enterprise’s internal environment. - Financial conditions for entrepreneurship under the economic modernization. - Impact of scientific and technological progress on globalization and fragmentation of the economy.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.

We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.

This book addresses major economic problems affecting the United States and proposes policy reforms to target them. The authors use a broad survey of economic research to conduct an evidence-based assessment of four economic issues affecting the US and other developed nations: slowing economic growth, unsustainable public debt increases, widening wage inequality, and climate change. Finding that the problems are interconnected and should be dealt with in a comprehensive manner, the authors explain how current policies have contributed to the issues and make recommendations on policy reforms. All four issues are examined in one place and the resulting policy recommendations form a consistent plan to mediate the problems simultaneously. Providing a comprehensive approach to some of economic policy’s most difficult problems, this book will be an excellent resource for students and researchers interested in macroeconomic theory, public sector economics, international economics, labor economics, and environmental economics.

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.